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Monday, October 20, 2025

Shield or Spark? The U.S. Golden Dome and the New Missile Arms Race


Shield or Spark? The U.S. Golden Dome and the New Missile Arms Race

China's Hypersonic Arsenal Challenges U.S. 'Golden Dome' Defense Initiative

Beijing's Advanced Missile Technology and Rival Defense Platform Intensify Strategic Arms Race

As the United States pursues its ambitious Golden Dome missile defense system, China has unveiled a formidable array of hypersonic weapons and deployed a competing global defense platform, marking a new chapter in strategic competition that experts warn could destabilize the international security landscape.

China Deploys Defense Prototype Ahead of U.S.

In a significant development, China has deployed a working prototype of a global missile defense system capable of tracking up to 1,000 missiles simultaneously, achieving operational status before the United States has finalized the technical design of its Golden Dome initiative. The Chinese system, formally called the "distributed early warning detection big data platform," has been tested and handed to the People's Liberation Army, according to reports from the research team led by Li Xudong at the Nanjing Research Institute of Electronics Technology.

The platform integrates inputs from space, air, sea, and ground sensors to monitor missile launches directed at China from any point worldwide. The system uses QUIC, or Quick UDP Internet Connections, a transport protocol designed to maintain high-speed and secure transmission across bandwidth-limited or intermittently connected military networks, even under electronic interference or disruption.

Hypersonic Weapons Surge

China's technological advantage extends well beyond missile defense. In September 2025, China unveiled the CJ-1000 hypersonic cruise missile during a military parade in Beijing, claiming the weapon offers "powerful penetration" strike capabilities. Chinese military expert Shao Yongling stated that due to its faster flight speed and better maneuverability, the CJ-1000 can effectively reduce the success rate of interception by existing missile defense systems.

The YJ-19, with its visible air inlet, represents what could be the world's first air-breathing hypersonic missile to make a formal appearance. At the September military parade, four new types of YJ series anti-ship missiles were displayed for the first time, with three being hypersonic missiles adopting different configurations, demonstrating the rich technological paths of China's hypersonic development.

In late September 2025, China conducted one of its most strategically significant missile tests in recent years, launching what analysts believe to be a new variant of an intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with hypersonic boost-glide technology on a depressed trajectory. By 2025, China is estimated to possess approximately 500 nuclear warheads, with Pentagon projections suggesting that this number could exceed 1,000 by 2030.

The DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle is thought to reach speeds between Mach 5 and Mach 10. Since conventional interceptor missiles have difficulty against maneuvering targets traveling faster than Mach 5, a problem exacerbated by decreased detection times, the United States may place more importance on developing directed-energy weapons as a countermeasure.

In January 2025, China completed the final test of its highly classified hypersonic air-to-air missile, designed to engage high-value targets, including advanced stealth aircraft such as the U.S. B-21 Raider bomber. Unlike traditional missiles with ranges of a few hundred kilometers, these advanced weapons can strike targets over 1,000 km away.

U.S. Golden Dome Faces Technical and Financial Hurdles

Launched conceptually on May 20, 2025, the Golden Dome programme targets a broad spectrum of threats from ballistic and hypersonic missiles to cruise missiles and drone swarms. Initial estimates placed total costs at $175 billion, but the space-based tier alone may exceed $500 billion.

U.S. Space Force General Michael Guetlein, the programme's lead, admitted that progress is slow, stating "Everyone who's telling you they think they know, do not know, including me". The American Physical Society warned in February 2025 that it would take 16,000 interceptors to destroy 10 ICBMs.

Meanwhile, U.S. hypersonic weapons development continues to lag. The U.S. Army is poised to deploy its ground-based Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon to an operational unit by the end of 2025, according to a congressional report released on February 27, 2025. The Pentagon's FY2025 budget request for hypersonic research was $6.9 billion—up from $4.7 billion in the FY2023 request.

Led by RTX subsidiary Raytheon, the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile is now projecting that it will significantly exceed its cost baseline. Russia and China have made it clear that they had gone to deployment on systems, with weapons in the hands of their warfighters that the United States did not.

China-Russia Strategic Alignment

In a May 8 joint statement on global strategic stability, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin characterized the Golden Dome project as a rejection of the "inseparable interrelationship between strategic offensive arms and strategic defensive arms, which is one of the central and fundamental principles of maintaining global strategic stability".

The statement outlined concerns that the United States is developing the capability to use "high-precision conventional weapons or a combination of nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems" to launch a strike against the strategic nuclear forces of Beijing or Moscow, with Golden Dome then intercepting a "radically weakened retaliatory strike with air and missile defense assets".

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that "Golden Dome" intends to create an unconstrained, global, multi-layer and multi-domain missile defense system, adding that it plans to expand the U.S. arsenal of means for combat operations in outer space, including research and development and deployment of orbital interception systems.

Global Strategic Implications

In May, Russia and China jointly called the initiative 'deeply destabilising', warning it could provoke retaliatory measures and undermine the credibility of mutually assured destruction. China's foreign ministry added that the plan has 'strong offensive implications' and called it an attempt to 'turn space into a battlefield'.

Golden Dome threatens the effectiveness of Russia's nuclear and conventional forces, particularly during midcourse and terminal phases. Moscow may respond with mobile launch platforms, advanced decoys, and hypersonic glide vehicles.

In August, India's Chief of Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan, described the Sudarshan Chakra initiative as 'India's own Iron Dome or Golden Dome' during an address in Mhow, stating: 'The aim is to develop a system to protect India's strategic, civilian, and nationally important sites. It will act both as a shield as well as a sword'.

The Strategic Race Continues

Experts have suggested this could be another case where "the US has an idea but China brings it to life". Beijing fields one of the world's largest missile fleets and has taken the lead over Washington in hypersonic missile technology—maneuverable weapons that travel more than five times the speed of sound.

Whether Golden Dome emerges as a credible shield or a catalyst for global instability will depend on development outcomes, strategic choices, and the willingness of states to pursue cooperative governance in space. The initiative highlights the tension between national defence ambitions and the need for international stability in a shared domain.

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