Israel Operation Rising Lion: A Blueprint for Modern Warfare and the Implications for U.S. National Security

Operation Rising Lion: A Blueprint for Modern Warfare and the Implications for U.S. National Security

By Claude Anthropic
Naval Institute Proceedings, July 2025

Executive Summary

The June 2025 Israeli operations against Iran—culminating in Operations Red Wedding, Narnia, and Rising Lion—represent a paradigm shift in modern warfare that demands immediate attention from U.S. defense planners. These operations demonstrated how sustained intelligence penetration, technological superiority, and coordinated deception can neutralize a regional power within days. More critically, they provide a concerning preview of capabilities that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) may already possess or be developing for potential use against the United States and its allies.

The Israeli Model: Deep Penetration and Systematic Destruction

Operation Red Wedding: Decapitation Strike Excellence

On June 13, 2025, Israel executed what military historians will likely regard as one of the most successful decapitation strikes in modern warfare. Operation Red Wedding eliminated approximately 30 senior Iranian military commanders, including the heads of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran's Armed Forces Chief of Staff, and the commander of the Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters—all within 12 minutes.

The operation's success rested on years of intelligence preparation. Israeli Mossad operatives had embedded deep within Iranian society, establishing communication networks, recruiting assets, and pre-positioning weapons systems. The deception campaign that lured Iran's leadership to a "secure" bunker in Tehran involved sophisticated psychological operations, including staged diplomatic tensions with the United States to convince Iranian officials the meeting would be safe.

Operation Narnia: Scientific Asset Elimination

Simultaneously with Red Wedding, Israeli forces executed Operation Narnia, assassinating nine of Iran's top nuclear scientists in their homes using precision-guided munitions. This coordinated strike demonstrated Israel's ability to track, surveil, and eliminate high-value targets across multiple locations with surgical precision, effectively decapitating Iran's nuclear program leadership overnight.

Pre-positioned Assets and Secret Infrastructure

Perhaps most concerning from a defensive perspective was Israel's establishment of secret drone bases inside Iran and the pre-positioning of missile systems disguised as civilian infrastructure. Spike NLOS missiles were concealed in civilian vehicles and positioned near critical military targets months in advance. These systems remained undetected until activated remotely during the main assault, highlighting the vulnerability of even highly secured military installations to long-term infiltration campaigns.

The China Factor: Capabilities and Intent

Current Chinese Infiltration Operations

Recent intelligence assessments and judicial cases reveal that China has been systematically attempting to penetrate U.S. military and intelligence networks. According to FBI Director Christopher Wray, the Bureau opens a new China-related counterintelligence case every 10 hours, with nearly half of all active counterintelligence cases being China-related.

Current Chinese operations include:

• Military Recruitment Operations: In July 2025, the Department of Justice charged two Chinese nationals, Yuance Chen and Liren Lai, with attempting to recruit assets within U.S. military ranks on behalf of China's Ministry of State Security (MSS).
• Technology Acquisition: Chinese companies like DeepSeek have been identified as aiding China's military and intelligence operations while using workarounds to access restricted U.S. semiconductors through Southeast Asian shell companies.
• Infrastructure Penetration: Chinese operatives have successfully infiltrated telecommunications networks globally, gaining access to calling records and text messages from major carriers.

Chinese Special Operations Capabilities

The PLA has significantly expanded its special operations forces (SOF) since the 1990s, now fielding an estimated 20,000-30,000 personnel across 15 army brigades and specialized units in the Marine Corps, Airborne Corps, and Rocket Force. Chinese SOF doctrine emphasizes:

• Infiltration and Reconnaissance: Advanced training in airborne, surface, and underwater infiltration missions
• Target Designation: Capability to identify and illuminate targets for precision-guided missile strikes
• Infrastructure Disruption: Training to disable critical infrastructure and command centers
• Long-range Operations: Growing capability to project force globally with improved Y-20 heavy lift transport aircraft

The "Rising Lion" Scenario Applied to the United States

If China were to apply Israeli tactics from Operation Rising Lion against the United States, the implications would be catastrophic:

Phase 1: Long-term Infiltration

• Chinese operatives could spend years embedding within U.S. communities, particularly near military installations
• Pre-positioning of weapons systems and communication networks in major metropolitan areas
• Recruitment of assets within U.S. military, intelligence, and defense contractor communities

Phase 2: Infrastructure Preparation

• Establishment of secret communication networks and drone bases within U.S. territory
• Cyber penetration of critical infrastructure control systems
• Mapping of high-value targets including military leadership, nuclear facilities, and command centers

Phase 3: Coordinated Strike

• Simultaneous elimination of senior military and political leadership
• Cyber attacks to disable communications and defense systems
• Physical strikes against nuclear facilities, military bases, and critical infrastructure
• Information warfare campaigns to sow confusion and prevent coordinated response

Vulnerabilities in U.S. Defense Posture

Geographic Challenges

Unlike Iran, which is geographically isolated, the United States' extensive coastlines, porous borders, and large immigrant populations provide numerous infiltration opportunities. Chinese nationals entering through legitimate channels—students, businesspeople, tourists—could establish long-term cover identities while building operational networks.

Technological Dependencies

The Israeli operation demonstrated how technological superiority can overcome conventional defenses. China's growing capabilities in artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, and precision-guided munitions suggest they could potentially achieve similar effects against U.S. targets.

Institutional Vulnerabilities

The decentralized nature of U.S. government and military command structures, while providing redundancy, also creates multiple points of vulnerability. Chinese intelligence services have shown particular interest in recruiting assets within these institutions.

Strategic Implications and Recommendations

Immediate Actions Required

1. Enhanced Counterintelligence: Dramatically expand FBI and military counterintelligence capabilities focused on Chinese infiltration
2. Infrastructure Security: Implement comprehensive security protocols for all critical infrastructure facilities
3. Supply Chain Security: Eliminate Chinese-manufactured components from all critical systems
4. Personnel Security: Enhanced vetting procedures for all personnel with access to sensitive information

Long-term Strategic Adaptations

1. Distributed Command Structures: Develop more resilient command and control systems that can function despite leadership decapitation attempts
2. Domestic Manufacturing: Reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing for critical defense components
3. Allied Coordination: Share intelligence and coordinate defensive measures with allies facing similar threats
4. Technological Superiority: Maintain decisive advantages in detection, tracking, and defensive systems

Conclusion

Operation Rising Lion demonstrated that traditional concepts of national sovereignty and defensive barriers may be obsolete in an era of sophisticated intelligence operations and precision weapons. China possesses many of the same capabilities Israel employed against Iran, along with significantly greater resources and global reach.

The question is not whether China has the capability to conduct similar operations against the United States, but whether U.S. defenses are adequate to detect and counter such threats. The answer, based on recent counterintelligence failures and ongoing Chinese infiltration attempts, suggests significant vulnerabilities that require immediate attention.

The United States must learn from Israel's successes and Iran's failures to develop more resilient defensive strategies. This requires not just technological solutions, but fundamental changes in how we approach national security in an age of unrestricted warfare.

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Sources and Citations

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