The Problems With China's Space Program - Ambitious but Risky

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China's Space Ambitions Heighten Kessler Syndrome Concerns as Debris Events Multiply

Recent rocket breakups and aggressive satellite constellation plans underscore the growing orbital debris crisis

By Claude Anthropic and Staff

The August 2024 breakup of a Chinese Long March 6A rocket upper stage, which scattered more than 700 pieces of trackable debris across low Earth orbit, has intensified scientific concerns about the cascading collision scenario known as Kessler syndrome. This incident, which occurred shortly after deploying the first 18 satellites of China's ambitious Qianfan ("Thousand Sails") broadband constellation, exemplifies the mounting risks as nations race to populate space with thousands of new satellites.

The Kessler syndrome, first theorized by NASA scientist Donald Kessler in 1978, describes a runaway cascade of collisions in which space debris generates more debris, potentially rendering entire orbital regions unusable for generations. As of 2025, the number was estimated at over 11,800, most of which (7,135) belonged to Starlink, the constellation of SpaceX, but China's rapid expansion into this domain is fundamentally altering the orbital landscape.

Chinese Space Infrastructure Under Scrutiny

China's space program operates through multiple vectors that collectively contribute to orbital congestion. The country's Tiangong space station, completed in 2022, represents a significant presence in low Earth orbit between 340 and 450 kilometers altitude. The construction of the Chinese Space Station officially began in April 2021 using the massive Long March 5B rocket, which has drawn criticism for its uncontrolled reentries of 23-ton core stages.

The design of the Long March 5B rocket used to launch the Wentian module means the launcher's core stage entered orbit before releasing its payload, creating what aerospace experts consider the largest uncontrolled reentry objects in modern spaceflight. Unlike other major launch vehicles, the Long March 5B's architectural choice to combine first and upper stages into a single element leaves massive debris in orbit that eventually falls back to Earth unpredictably.

The Tiangong station itself, while operationally successful, occupies a critical orbital altitude where The debris field from the A-Sat test is found at an altitude of between 440km and 520km above Earth, threatening the ISS, China's Tiangong space station, and other spacecraft. This region already contains debris from China's controversial 2007 anti-satellite test, which remains one of the largest single contributions to the orbital debris population.

The Qianfan Challenge to Starlink

Perhaps more concerning for orbital sustainability is China's aggressive push into satellite internet through the Qianfan constellation, operated by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology. China has planned to launch and establish 648 satellites by the end of 2025 as part of the 1,296 satellites in the first phase of construction of the constellation, with the finished broadband multimedia satellite megaconstellation consisting of over 15,000 internet satellites.

This timeline represents an extraordinary acceleration in Chinese launch activity. To put this in perspective, SpaceX, with its reusable Falcon 9 rocket, has launched 6,895 satellites since the Starlink constellation's first launch in May 2019. For China to achieve its Qianfan goals, it would need to launch approximately seven satellites per day through 2030, requiring a fundamental transformation of its launch infrastructure and capabilities.

The project faces significant technical hurdles. If even a fraction of the launches required to field this Chinese megaconstellation generate as much debris as this first launch, the result would be an untenable addition to the space debris population in LEO, according to Audrey Schaffer of Slingshot Aerospace, following the August 2024 debris-generating incident.

Orbital Physics and Collision Mathematics

The physics of space debris make the Kessler syndrome particularly insidious. A 1 kg debris fragment impacting at 10 km/s releases kinetic energy equivalent to 22 kg of TNT, capable of catastrophically disrupting multi-ton satellites. At the velocities typical of low Earth orbit, even paint flecks become potentially destructive projectiles.

Current models suggest the orbital environment may have already crossed critical thresholds. In 2009, Kessler wrote that modeling results indicated the debris environment had already become unstable, meaning that efforts to achieve a growth-free small debris environment by eliminating past debris sources would likely fail because fragments from future collisions would accumulate faster than atmospheric drag could remove them.

The International Space Station has experienced this reality firsthand. The International Space Station had to fire thrusters from a docked spacecraft last month to avoid a piece of debris that has been circling the globe for the nearly 18 years since the Chinese government blasted apart one of its own satellites in a weapons test. The evasive maneuver was the second in just six days for the space station, demonstrating how historical debris continues to threaten current operations.

Military and Strategic Dimensions

The satellite constellation race extends beyond commercial considerations into national security domains. The People's Liberation Army expressed intentions of potentially using the megaconstellation for military uses akin to Starlink's utility for Ukrainian Armed Forces communications while fighting against Russia during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This military dimension adds urgency to deployment timelines while potentially compromising safety protocols. Traditional satellite operators have historically prioritized controlled deorbits and debris mitigation, but military requirements may pressure rapid deployment over long-term sustainability.

China has also demonstrated concerning anti-satellite capabilities. In January 2007, for instance, China intentionally destroyed one of its defunct weather satellites in a much-criticized test of anti-satellite technology that generated more than 3,000 tracked debris objects and perhaps 32,000 others too small to be detected. The vast majority of this debris remains in orbit today, creating ongoing collision risks.

Global Infrastructure at Risk

The stakes extend far beyond national prestige or military capability. Global Positioning Systems: 78% of commercial aviation navigation depends on GPS · Weather Monitoring: Polar-orbiting satellites provide 85% of input data for weather models · Communications: 4,000+ Starlink satellites enable global broadband. A Kessler syndrome event could cascade through these critical systems, disrupting everything from airline navigation to climate monitoring.

European Space Agency data indicates the current orbital population includes about 10,000 operational spacecraft zooming around our planet at the moment (most of them SpaceX Starlink internet satellites), roughly 40,500 pieces of debris at least 4 inches (10 cm) wide and 130 million shards at least 1 millimeter in diameter.

Mitigation Efforts and International Coordination

Addressing these risks requires unprecedented international cooperation and technical innovation. The KESSYM model estimates needing 5-10 large debris removals annually to stabilize LEO, costing $500M-$1B/year based on current technology.

However, current tracking and mitigation capabilities remain inadequate. While organizations monitor objects larger than 10 centimeters, the "Trackable debris" is generally any object that's at least 4 inches (10 centimeters) in diameter. The newly spawned debris cloud doubtless also contains many shards that are too small to monitor.

Space sustainability advocates recommend several immediate measures, including requirements that all satellites above 400 kilometers carry propulsion systems for collision avoidance, mandatory controlled deorbit capabilities, and international coordination on orbital slot allocation.

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SIDEBAR: Ground Risks from Chinese Launch Operations

Inland Launch Hazards and Hypergolic Contamination

Unlike Western space programs that primarily launch over oceans, China conducts many missions from inland facilities, creating unique ground-based risks. The Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu province, Taiyuan in Shanxi province, and Xichang in Sichuan province routinely drop spent rocket stages over populated rural areas.

Hypergolic Fuel Contamination: Most concerning are missions using older Long March variants that burn hypergolic propellants—nitrogen tetroxide (N2O4) and unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH). These chemicals are highly toxic carcinogens that persist in soil and groundwater. Spent stages from Long March 2, 3, and 4 series rockets regularly crash-land in farming communities, contaminating agricultural areas with residual fuel.

Chinese state media occasionally reports evacuations of "drop zones" before launches, but independent verification of safety protocols remains limited. Agricultural areas in Guangxi, Guizhou, and Hunan provinces have experienced repeated contamination events, with local reports of dead livestock and contaminated crops following stage impacts.

Quantified Comparison: Western programs achieve fundamentally different safety profiles:

• SpaceX Falcon 9: 95%+ first stages recovered via controlled landing; remaining 5% impact predetermined ocean areas
• ULA Atlas V/Delta IV: Upper stages typically burn up completely; lower stages impact Pacific Ocean drop zones
• European Ariane 5/6: All stages impact Atlantic Ocean; no overland populated area risks
• Chinese inland launches: An estimated 70+ hypergolic-fueled rocket bodies fall over populated areas annually

Long March 5B: Global Reentry Roulette

The Long March 5B presents a unique global hazard through its massive uncontrolled reentries. The core stage measures approximately 100 feet (30 meters) long with an empty mass of about 23.8 tons, making it one of the largest uncontrolled reentry objects in spaceflight history.

Reentry Track Record:

• May 2020: 18-ton debris survived reentry, with fragments impacting Ivory Coast villages
• May 2021: Core stage reentered over Arabian Peninsula, potential debris in Indian Ocean
• July 2022: Fragments potentially impacted Malaysia and Philippines
• November 2022: Reentry over Central Pacific
• Each mission: 20+ ton core stage in 7-10 day uncontrolled orbit before reentry

Statistical Risk Assessment: While the mathematical probability of casualties remains low (approximately 1 in 3,000 for populated area impact per reentry), the cumulative risk grows with each mission. NASA estimates that for objects this size, there's roughly a 20-40% chance that debris will survive reentry.

International Comparison: No other current operational rocket leaves objects of comparable mass in uncontrolled orbit:

• Space Shuttle External Tank: 26 tons, but controlled deorbit over Pacific
• Saturn V S-IC: 130+ tons, but ocean impact on suborbital trajectory
• Falcon Heavy cores: Controlled landing or controlled ocean impact
• Long March 5B: 23+ tons, completely uncontrolled global reentry

The Outer Space Treaty requires nations to minimize risks to people and property, leading to international criticism of China's Long March 5B operations. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has called for "responsible space behavior," while European Space Agency officials have termed the practice "unacceptable in the 21st century."

Emerging Solutions: China has announced development of grid fins and controlled deorbit capabilities for future Long March variants, but implementation timelines remain unclear. The new Wenchang commercial spaceport in Hainan province offers ocean-drop trajectories, potentially reducing ground risks for future missions.

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Looking Forward

The next decade will prove critical for orbital sustainability. China's Qianfan project alone could add 15,000 satellites to an already crowded environment, while other nations pursue similar megaconstellations. Furthermore, China launched a record 263 LEO satellites last year, demonstrating its commitment to space-based communications infrastructure, including SpaceSail and three additional Chinese satellite constellations in development, with Beijing planning to launch 43,000 LEO satellites in coming decades.

The scientific community increasingly warns that without fundamental changes to how humanity approaches space activities, the Kessler syndrome may transition from theoretical concern to operational reality. Although such a catastrophe would probably unfold slowly, "once things get going, it would be really difficult to stop," according to Marlon Sorge of the Aerospace Corporation.

As China's space ambitions collide with orbital physics, the international community faces a choice: implement binding debris mitigation standards now, or risk losing access to the space environment that has become integral to modern civilization. The debris clouds circling Earth today may determine whether future generations can safely reach for the stars or find themselves trapped beneath a shell of their own making.

Sources and References

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The research for this article was supported by data from the European Space Agency, NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office, and the Space Surveillance Network.