International MQ-9B Momentum and Next-Generation AI/Autonomous Competition
Executive Summary
A critical blind spot in the narrative around the MQ-9 domestic production closure is that while U.S. Air Force purchases have ended, international demand for the MQ-9B SkyGuardian/SeaGuardian variants is accelerating dramatically, and GA-ASI is engaged in high-stakes competition for the next generation of AI-enabled, autonomous collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) that represent a potential multi-billion-dollar market.
The Salina expansion, North Dakota flight operations, and San Diego dispersal strategy should not be understood as mere cost-reduction measures responding to production decline, but rather as strategic positioning for sustained growth across three distinct markets:
- International MQ-9B sustainment and new sales (proven, near-term growth)
- Next-generation CCA autonomous drone competition (speculative, long-term transformational opportunity)
- Distributed technical operations (enabling both while managing labor costs)
Part 1: International MQ-9B Market Explosion
The Scale of Export Demand
While the U.S. Air Force received its final MQ-9 in 2025 after domestic production closure, international procurement tells a dramatically different story:
Current and Committed Orders:
- Canada: CA$2.49 billion for 11 MQ-9B SkyGuardians (deliveries begin 2028)
- United Kingdom: 16 MQ-9B Protectors (10 of 16 delivered by June 2025; all 16 delivered by end 2025)
- India: $3.4 billion for 31 MQ-9B UAVs (largest single MQ-9B procurement outside U.S.; delivery begins 2029)
- Belgium: 4 MQ-9B SkyGuardians ordered (first delivered summer 2025)
- Taiwan: 4 MQ-9B SkyGuardians (deliveries Q3 2026 and 2027)
- Germany: 8 MQ-9B SeaGuardians (deliveries 2028)
- Denmark: 4 MQ-9B SkyGuardians (deliveries 2028–2029)
- Poland: 3 MQ-9B (deliveries Q1 2027)
- Japan: Multiple units through Government-Owned, Company-Operated leases; additional procurement expected
- Qatar: 8 aircraft announced (in process)
NATO/Allied Nations: Belgium, Poland, UK, Denmark, Germany, Canada all procured or planning MQ-9B acquisitions through NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA).
Middle East Interest: Multiple Gulf nations evaluating MQ-9B capabilities; Qatar leading; others monitoring program.
Strategic Value of International Market
Unlike the domestic U.S. market, which is characterized by one-time procurement decisions and planned fleet retirement by 2035, international customers represent:
- Recurrent revenue streams: Multi-year training contracts, logistics support, data link services, ammunition resupply
- Higher unit economics: Export sales typically generate higher margins than government contracts; 30-year operational life extends sustainment tail
- Growth potential: Each international customer requires infrastructure setup, training, spare parts logistics, ground control station support—all high-margin service businesses
- Geopolitical leverage: International sales tied to U.S. foreign policy objectives strengthen bilateral relationships; countries like India, Canada, Taiwan, Germany are strategic allies facing near-peer threats
The "Team SkyGuardian" Ecosystem
GA-ASI has explicitly structured Canada and other allied procurements as integrated industrial partnerships:
"Team SkyGuardian unites the best Canadian capabilities with the world's leading RPAS platform resulting in long-term Canadian jobs across aerospace, defence, and unmanned systems," with 2,000+ Canadian contractors and suppliers across the country working on MQ-9B integration and support.
This model creates sticky, long-term partnerships that generate recurring revenue from training, maintenance, logistics, and system integration—far more valuable than one-time airframe sales.
Capability Enhancement and Export Growth
GA-ASI is developing long-range standoff weapons capabilities for MQ-9B, with plans to fly new weapons as early as 2026, enabling mission profiles where MQ-9Bs launch from friendly bases to hold targets at risk from great ranges.
GA-ASI announced a partnership with Saab to create Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) capability for SeaGuardian, set to be flown on MQ-9B in 2026, providing affordable AEW capabilities to nations that may not have the need or resources for traditional crewed AEW platforms.
These capability enhancements create new export opportunities and drive existing customer upgrades—multiplying the total addressable market.
Part 2: Next-Generation Autonomous CCA Competition—The Transformational Bet
While MQ-9B dominates current international markets, GA-ASI faces existential competition in the next-generation autonomous combat drone market. The stakes are enormous: the Air Force plans to field at least 1,000 Collaborative Combat Aircraft at ~$30 million per drone, with funding growing 100% from FY24 to FY26, and plans to spend nearly $9 billion through fiscal 2029 on the CCA program alone.
The Competitive Landscape
The Air Force initially selected five contractors (Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Atomics, and Anduril) for the CCA program's first phase, focused on design work, then winnowed down to just General Atomics and Anduril in April 2024 for prototype development and flight testing.
This is a two-horse race for Increment 1, with GA-ASI's YFQ-42A "Dark Merlin" competing directly against Anduril's YFQ-44A "Fury".
GA-ASI's CCA Strategy
Hardware Platform: GA-ASI's CCA prototype is based off its XQ-67A drone (first successful flight February 2025) and its MQ-20 Avenger prototype, with the company completing autonomy and mission system tests through the next phase of the CCA program.
Autonomy Partnership: RTX provides autonomy capabilities for General Atomics' YFQ-42A, with RTX supplying the autonomy software—essentially the computer pilot for the drone. General Atomics is integrating Collins Aerospace's Sidekick Collaborative Mission Autonomy software onto the YFQ-42A's flight control system, with tests activating "autonomy mode" that allowed a ground-based operator to send different commands directly to the prototype.
Flight Status: The critical design review was completed in late 2024, with maiden prototype CCA flights planned for 2025. GA-ASI's YFQ-42A received mission designation in March 2025.
Anduril as Disruptive Competitor
Anduril represents a fundamentally different competitive threat than traditional primes:
Anduril's YFQ-44A completed its maiden flight on October 31, roughly two months behind the YFQ-42A, notably flying semi-autonomously and demonstrating its focus on software maturity. The YFQ-44A incorporates stealth characteristics, bottom-mounted engine air intake, and single tail design. Anduril's leadership previously said the tricycle landing gear design allows for manufacture in "any machine shop in America."
Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf stated in response to CCA selection: "There is no time to waste on business as usual. With the CCA program, Secretary Kendall and the Air Force have embraced a fast-moving, forward-looking approach to field autonomous systems at speed and scale. We are honored to be selected for this unprecedented opportunity, which signals a demand for continued expansion of the defense industrial base."
Key competitive advantages of Anduril:
- Focused entirely on autonomous systems; no legacy business to defend
- Designed for affordability and manufacturability ("any machine shop in America")
- Emphasis on autonomous software maturity from day one
- Younger company unencumbered by traditional defense industrial constraints
Why This Matters for GA-ASI
If GA-ASI wins Increment 1 CCA production, the company gains access to a potential $30 billion+ total addressable market (1,000+ aircraft at ~$30M each, plus sustainment). If it loses to Anduril, GA-ASI faces:
- Loss of strategic positioning in next-generation autonomous combat aircraft
- Risk of Anduril becoming the "platform of choice" for allied international procurements
- Narrowing of GA-ASI's future growth to sustainment of legacy MQ-9B fleet (finite, declining market after 2035)
This is a winner-take-most market dynamic, not a co-production opportunity.
Part 3: Strategic Implications for Geographic Dispersion (Salina in Context)
The Salina expansion, North Dakota facilities, and San Diego headquarters consolidation must be understood within this dual-track competitive context:
Scenario 1: GA-ASI Wins CCA Increment 1 Production
- Workforce demands explode; need for distributed technical operations across multiple sites
- Salina becomes critical for technical documentation, software support, crew training as CCA production scales
- North Dakota provides flight test infrastructure for CCA autonomy validation and pilot training
- San Diego remains high-cost but essential for corporate strategy, advanced engineering, prime contractor relationships
Labor arbitrage becomes essential: Distributing skilled technical work to lower-cost regions (Kansas, North Dakota) while retaining expensive San Diego talent for strategy and advanced development.
Scenario 2: GA-ASI Loses CCA Competition to Anduril
- Company faces stagnant domestic market (MQ-9 production ended, fleet retirement 2035)
- International MQ-9B sales and sustainment become primary growth engine
- Salina becomes more important, not less: sustained technical support hub for 30+ years of MQ-9B international operations
- North Dakota training center becomes critical for international crew training pipeline
- San Diego faces pressure to right-size; company may consolidate toward sustainment operations
In either scenario, geographic diversification is strategically essential, not merely tactical.
Part 4: The Jet Engine Transformation
You noted the shift toward jet-powered, AI-controlled UAVs as potentially transformational. This is accurate and reflects industry consensus:
Commercial Jet Engines in Military UAVs
Anduril's YFQ-44A Fury is powered by a commercial off-the-shelf business jet engine, with Anduril's leadership designing the tricycle landing gear to allow manufacture in "any machine shop in America."
Notably, a disparity in available jet engines is highlighted at shows like AFA, with vendors demonstrating small jet engines designed to power munitions or kamikaze drones at a fraction of the cost of larger engines.
Strategic Implications
Shifting to jet propulsion from turboprops (MQ-9's Honeywell TPE331) has profound implications:
- Speed increase: Jets enable transit speeds 2-3x turboprops, reducing time to target and increasing operational flexibility
- Altitude capability: Better high-altitude performance for contested airspace
- Commercial supplier base: Jet engines from business jet manufacturers create massive economies of scale and cost reduction
- Manufacturing accessibility: Lower barriers to entry (non-traditional vendors can build airframes)
This is why Anduril's approach is disruptive: Commercial jet engines + modular design + autonomous software = dramatically reduced unit costs and production barriers.
Part 5: The AI/Autonomy Race
The real competition is not hardware; it's autonomy software.
DOD has selected seven companies to provide software support for the Replicator initiative's autonomy and command and control, with the second tranche focusing on software to enable system collaboration "to create lethal effects and respond to a very dynamic environment against different threats."
The Air Force is integrating a government-owned Autonomy Government Reference Architecture (A-GRA) onto loyal wingman drones built by both General Atomics and Anduril, with both companies working with Collins Aerospace and Shield AI respectively to integrate mission autonomy software onto their CCA prototypes.
Key insight: The autonomy software is now a separate, competitive procurement. RTX and Shield AI (independent companies) won the autonomy contracts, not GA-ASI or Anduril. This means:
- Autonomy capability is becoming commoditized and accessible to all airframe manufacturers
- Speed and cost of integration become competitive differentiators
- Companies that can rapidly integrate third-party autonomy software into their platforms will win
GA-ASI's advantage: 30+ years of combat experience with unmanned systems, proven integration capabilities, and deep relationships with RTX (defense prime with advanced autonomy capabilities).
Anduril's advantage: Single-minded focus on autonomous systems, younger organizational culture, minimal legacy constraints.
Conclusion: Salina as Strategic Node in Multi-Dimensional Competition
The Salina expansion is not a response to declining domestic demand; it is proactive positioning for three concurrent market opportunities:
- International MQ-9B sustainment growth (proven, near-term)
- CCA Increment 1 production (speculative, transformational, 2027–2035+)
- Next-generation autonomous systems competition (speculative, long-term)
Salina provides:
- Workforce pipeline through K-State UAS education partnership
- Lower labor costs for distributed technical operations
- Political support for sustained defense spending
- Distance from California regulations/costs while maintaining proximity to Kansas military installations and Kansas aerospace ecosystem
If GA-ASI wins CCA competition, Salina becomes a critical hub for scaling technical documentation, software support, and crew training. If GA-ASI loses, Salina becomes the primary hub for 30-year MQ-9B international sustainment tail—still valuable, just narrower.
Either way, Salina is strategically essential, not peripheral.
You were correct to observe that international market momentum and next-generation competition are the real story, not domestic production decline.
Sources and Citations
- Wikipedia – General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper (March 2026)
- Naval News – GA-ASI expanding MQ-9B SeaGuardian capabilities (January 2026)
- Army Recognition – Taiwan to receive first MQ-9B SkyGuardians in 2026 (November 2025)
- General Atomics – GA-ASI and CAE Sign Long-Term Agreement for MQ-9B Mission Trainer (February 2025)
- General Atomics – GA-ASI Develops Long-Range Weapons Capabilities for MQ-9B (February 2026)
- The Aviationist – Germany to Buy MQ-9B SeaGuardians (January 2026)
- Breaking Defense – Denmark Orders Four MQ-9B SkyGuardians for Arctic Missions (July/September 2025)
- Simple Flying – Countries Acquiring MQ-9B SkyGuardian Drones (December 2024)
- Breaking Defense – Germany Orders 8 MQ-9B SeaGuardians (January 2026)
- Shephard – Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) Increment 1 (March 2025)
- DefenseScoop – Air Force begins testing mission autonomy package for CCA prototypes (February 2026)
- Breaking Defense – Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics for next round of CCA work (April 2024)
- Congress.gov – DOD Replicator Initiative: Background and Issues for Congress (January 2026)
- Defense Security Monitor – U.S. CCAs: Breaking Down the Field (November 2025)
- Breaking Defense – Anduril, General Atomics move into next phase of Air Force CCA drone program (April 2024)
- Breaking Defense – Air Force taps RTX, Shield AI to provide drone wingman autonomy (September 2025)
- DefenseScoop – Air Force kicks off ground testing for CCA drones (May 2025)
- DefenseScoop – Anduril conducts first flight test of Air Force CCA drone prototype (October 2025)
- Breaking Defense – CCA Round 2: Air Force picks 9 vendors for next batch of drone wingmen (December 2025)
- General Atomics – Team SkyGuardian Canada (ongoing)
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