US Space Force Battles China's "Orbital Hide-and-Seek" with Advanced Maui Surveillance Complex

Hawaii facility emerges as critical asset in growing space surveillance rivalry as China deploys deceptive satellite tactics

MAUI SPACE SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX, Hawaii — High atop the 10,023-foot summit of Haleakala volcano, the U.S. Space Force's most advanced surveillance telescopes are locked in an increasingly sophisticated game of orbital cat-and-mouse with China, as Beijing develops new capabilities to hide its satellite activities from American detection systems.

General Chance Saltzman, Chief of Space Operations, revealed this week that China is "intentionally trying to do things" in space "so we don't see it," employing tactics ranging from changing satellite brightness to maneuvering in what Beijing believes are U.S. blind spots. Speaking during a rare visit to the Maui Space Surveillance Complex, Saltzman emphasized the escalating challenge: "We've got to keep pace, and we've got to keep advancing our capabilities so that that's harder and harder for them to do."

The Strategic High Ground

The Maui facility represents what military officials call the "third-best place to put a telescope in the world" and the optimal location for daylight sky observations. Positioned above Maui's cloud layer with crisp, clear air and minimal light pollution, the complex provides unparalleled views of satellites and space objects across the Pacific region.

"From a space perspective, this particular piece of land is pretty important because some of the work you can do here, you just can't do elsewhere," Saltzman said. The strategic location allows surveillance of geostationary satellites hovering over the Pacific, with sight lines extending from the U.S. West Coast to mainland China.

The centerpiece of operations is the Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) telescope, a 75-ton, 3.67-meter instrument that ranks as the Department of Defense's largest optical telescope. Built in the 1990s, the massive telescope can rotate quickly enough to track low-Earth orbit satellites and ballistic missiles, though it captures only about 10 percent of a satellite's total orbital path.

China's Deceptive Space Maneuvers

Recent intelligence reveals the sophisticated nature of China's space deception efforts. The Space Force has deployed secretive "situational awareness indications and warning payloads" aboard satellites since 2023 that have been "collecting all kinds of very interesting data on the Chinese SOSI [Space Observation Surveillance and Identification System] network" — Beijing's equivalent to Washington's Space Surveillance Network.

The orbital surveillance rivalry reached new heights in September when China's Jilin-1 satellite constellation captured images of a U.S. WorldView Legion satellite that was itself monitoring Chinese space assets, marking "the first time Chang Guang had made public such dynamic space-based imagery." This tit-for-tat demonstration occurred after Maxar Intelligence had earlier published detailed images of China's advanced Shijian-26 reconnaissance satellite.

Colonel Barry Croker, who leads the Space Force's domain-awareness efforts under Mission Delta 2, noted the fundamental challenge: "We built a really great system for telling us where things were. It's difficult to know where things are going to be." The problem intensifies when satellites maneuver immediately after leaving observation windows, potentially ending up far from predicted locations.

Technological Arms Race

China has demonstrated remarkable advances in surveillance technology, including new laser-imaging satellites "powerful enough to capture human facial details from more than 60 miles (100 kilometers) away" — a 100-fold improvement over traditional spy cameras. This synthetic aperture lidar technology could enable unprecedented surveillance of foreign satellites and ground targets.

China's Yaogan-41 surveillance satellite, launched in December 2023, "may allow it to keep watch around the clock on the entire Indo-Pacific region from geostationary orbit," potentially tracking "car-sized objects throughout the entire Indo-Pacific region."

The complexity extends beyond simple tracking. U.S. officials have observed Chinese satellites "maneuvering in and out and around each other in synchronicity and in control," demonstrating capabilities that could be used to capture or disable other nations' spacecraft.

Modernization Under Pressure

The Maui complex is undergoing critical upgrades to meet evolving threats. Three Ground-Based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance Systems telescopes are receiving modernized "sensors, optics, algorithms, and post-processing of the data so they can 'see smaller, dimmer things further' into space." The Maui upgrade is expected to be completed by April 2026 or later.

In February 2025, KBR Inc. received a $176 million seven-year contract to provide "operations and equipment maintenance support, site modernization, and recapitalization to the existing legacy space domain awareness capabilities at Maui."

The facility now tracks over 40,000 objects in space, a mission that began during the Cold War but has transformed dramatically as space evolved from a peaceful domain to a contested warfighting environment.

Cultural and Environmental Challenges

The expansion faces significant local opposition. Native Hawaiians consider Haleakala sacred, and Space Force proposals for up to seven additional telescopes on the summit have met with protests. A 2023 diesel fuel spill of 700 gallons further angered local communities.

Saltzman acknowledged these concerns, stating the Space Force is "honored to be associated" with Haleakala and is "fully committed to respecting the mountain's cultural and spiritual significance and moving forward only in complete partnership with the community."

Space Domain Awareness Evolution

Saltzman has pushed for a "comprehensive program" rather than incremental improvements, noting that "space domain awareness capabilities are struggling to keep pace" with exponential growth in space congestion. The Space Force increased its space domain awareness budget by nearly 30 percent, from $373 million to $484 million.

The mission encompasses three core objectives in Saltzman's "theory of success": avoid operational surprise, deny first-mover advantage, and confront malign activity. Space domain awareness underpins all three goals.

Future Implications

Saltzman emphasized that the Space Force is now "really recognizing" that "space is a contested warfighting domain," driving priorities including space domain awareness, resilience, and capabilities to "hold at risk" adversary space assets.

As the orbital environment grows increasingly crowded and contested, the Maui Space Surveillance Complex stands as a critical sentinel, its powerful telescopes peering through Earth's atmosphere to track the subtle movements and deceptions of an new kind of warfare — one played out in the silence of space, 200 miles above the Pacific Ocean.

"If you're going to do something irresponsible, we're going to see it. We're going to tell the world, and then we're going to react and respond," Saltzman declared, a promise that depends heavily on the continued advancement of facilities like the one perched atop this Hawaiian volcano.

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Sources

1. Hlad, Jennifer. "When China plays orbital hide-and-seek, Maui's telescopes give the US an edge." Defense One, September 19, 2025. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2025/09/when-china-plays-orbital-hide-and-seek-mauis-telescopes-give-us-edge/408236/
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13. Dobbyn, Paula. "The Air Force Wants To Build 7 New Telescopes On Maui To Track Space Debris." Honolulu Civil Beat, May 19, 2024. https://www.civilbeat.org/2024/05/the-air-force-wants-to-build-7-new-telescopes-on-maui-to-track-space-debris/
14. Warwick, Graham. "Saltzman: Space Force in 'pretty good spot' regarding DoD funding shift." Breaking Defense, March 20, 2025. https://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/saltzman-space-force-in-pretty-good-spot-regarding-dod-funding-shift/
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16. When China plays orbital hide-and-seek, Maui’s telescopes give the US an edge - Defense One

Red Sea Operations Reveal Critical Lessons for Future Naval Warfare

Extended Combat Operations Test Navy's Readiness Against Asymmetric Threats

Bottom Line Up Front: The U.S. Navy's sustained combat operations in the Red Sea against Iranian-backed Houthis have exposed critical vulnerabilities in missile production capacity, cost-effective countermeasures, and operational tempo sustainability while demonstrating the service's adaptability in the first major naval combat since World War II.

Historic Naval Engagement Intensity

Since October 2023, the U.S. Navy has conducted the most sustained naval combat operations in eight decades. The Navy has defended against nearly 400 attack drones and missiles since Iranian-backed Houthi militants began their assault on commercial and military ships, firing back at levels comparable to World War II battles.

By mid-March 2025, the Houthis had attacked more than 190 ships, sinking two, seizing another, and killing at least four seafarers. Despite this persistent threat, no U.S. Navy ships have been struck by Houthi drones or missiles as of January 2025.

The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group bore the brunt of these operations during a historic nine-month deployment, expending more than 80 air-to-air missiles, 350 air-to-surface weapons, and 100 Standard and Tomahawk missiles. Captain Chris Hill described the mission as "the most complex series of engagements that the Navy has seen since World War II."

Vice Admiral Brendan McLane noted that "We've done the analysis with what we used to shoot in World War II, and we're at about two rounds per incoming missile to shoot (Houthi strikes) down."

The Cost Asymmetry Crisis

The most significant strategic concern emerging from Red Sea operations is the devastating cost imbalance between U.S. defensive measures and Houthi attack capabilities. Analysts estimate the Navy expended close to $2 billion in ordnance in 2024, with cost-exchange ratios heavily favoring the Houthis.

Unsustainable Economics:

• SM-6 missiles cost $4.3 million each to destroy $20,000 drones
• AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles cost $400,000 per drone intercept
• Multiple interceptors fired per target to ensure kill probability
• The Eisenhower Strike Group's total expenditure: 155 Standard missiles, 135 Tomahawks, 60 air-to-air missiles, and 420 air-to-surface munitions—hundreds of millions in costs

Breakthrough Solutions: The Navy achieved tactical innovation through cost-effective alternatives. AGR-20 laser-guided rockets, deployed during Operation Rough Rider, cost only $25,000 per intercept—achieving near-parity with Houthi drone costs and accounting for nearly half of all drone kills. Other promising solutions include:

• Close-In Weapon System: $8,100 for 300 rounds per target
• Directed energy weapons: Projected $5 per engagement
• Coyote interceptors: $100,000 per unit
• Anduril Roadrunner: $500,000 per reusable interceptor

Production Capacity Crisis

Red Sea operations have exposed alarming deficiencies in U.S. missile production that threaten sustained operations. The scale becomes clear when examining consumption versus production rates:

Tomahawk Production Breakdown:

• 2023 annual production: 55 missiles
• Single-day Yemen strikes: 80+ Tomahawks fired (146% of annual production)
• Current delivery rate: 5 missiles per month with 2-year lead times
• Iran-Israel conflict consumption: 80 SM-3 missiles in 12 days (6.5 years of production)

Systemic Production Constraints:

• SM-3 Block IIA: Only 12 missiles procured annually through 2029
• SM-6 production: 125 missiles in 2025, planned increase to 300 by 2029
• Historical comparison: Reagan's 1985 request for 1,380 SM-2s versus today's 125 total Standard missiles
• Fleet capacity: 10,000 VLS tubes across entire Navy, but only 7,000 total missiles available for full replenishment

The fundamental bottleneck lies in rocket motor production, with limited qualified suppliers and "just-in-time" manufacturing philosophy optimized for peacetime efficiency rather than wartime surge capacity. Raytheon has invested over $115 million for 67% capacity increase at its Huntsville facility, but the rocket motor supply base remains the critical constraint.

Operational Innovations and Challenges

The Navy successfully adapted its warfighting concepts under unprecedented operational tempo. Carrier Wing 3 flew six to seven days per week, launching 80-140 sorties daily, while applying composite warfare commander concepts across distributed operations.

Intelligence and Logistics Limitations: Naval aircraft struggled with autonomous target identification using older ATFLIR targeting pods, requiring reliance on Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drones—15 of which were shot down at $450 million total cost. Traditional "buddy store" refueling required 20-30% of carrier aircraft to serve as tankers, compromising mission capacity.

Personnel Endurance: The Eisenhower spent 200 consecutive days at sea without port calls, pushing crew endurance to limits. Innovative morale measures included Starlink connectivity for family communications, proving critical for maintaining operational effectiveness during extended combat deployments.

Strategic Implications for Near-Peer Conflict

Red Sea operations provide sobering insights for potential conflict with China over Taiwan. If current air defense systems approach their limits against relatively primitive Houthi technology, the implications for withstanding People's Liberation Army capabilities become deeply concerning.

Taiwan Scenario Scaling: Defense analyst Mark Cancian's wargaming shows U.S. submarines would "rapidly fire everything they have" at Chinese forces, consuming torpedoes "at a much higher rate than the U.S. Navy has experienced since World War II." Where Red Sea operations consumed hundreds of missiles over 18 months, a Taiwan conflict could require thousands within weeks.

China possesses the world's largest missile force with thousands of anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons. Unlike Houthi operations 8,000 miles from major U.S. bases, Pacific operations would occur without nearby replenishment facilities. The USS Laboon's near-depletion after engaging just 17 Houthi weapons in 10 hours illustrates the impossibility of sustained Western Pacific operations without massive pre-positioned munitions.

The Limits of Defensive Strategy

The Red Sea experience demonstrates fundamental inadequacies of purely defensive strategies against adversaries with state sponsor support. Despite tactical successes in intercepting attacks, the strategic mission failed—commercial shipping remains down 60% from pre-crisis levels, forcing costly African routing that adds 20 days and 33% fuel costs.

Iran's Strategic Sanctuary: Iran provides Houthis inexhaustible supplies while remaining largely immune from retaliation. Intelligence reports indicate China and Russia covertly support Houthi operations through satellite imagery and weapons manufacturing capabilities, while protecting their own commercial interests—Chinese shipping through Suez has increased 25% since October 2023.

Over 1,000 U.S. airstrikes since March 2025 have failed to degrade Houthi capabilities significantly, demonstrating how proxy forces can absorb massive punishment while maintaining operations through external support. Commander Eric Blomberg articulated the fundamental vulnerability: "We only have to get it wrong once... The Houthis just have to get one through."

Attrition Mathematics: This dynamic becomes catastrophic against near-peer adversaries capable of saturation attacks. The requirement for multiple interceptors per target to ensure kill probability means Chinese coordinated strikes could exhaust U.S. defensive magazines within hours rather than the months seen against Houthis.

Economic and Industrial Base Requirements

The Red Sea experience underscores urgent needs for defense industrial modernization. Current high-cost, low-volume production optimized for precision conflicts proves inadequate against asymmetric threats employing swarms of inexpensive platforms.

Traditional Munitions Solutions:

• Large multiyear contracts for LRASMs, SM-6s, and Tomahawks (yielding 5-15% cost savings)
• Production scaling: SM-6 to 300 annually by 2028, AIM-9X to 2,500 by 2027
• Directed energy weapons integration for $5 per engagement costs
• Enhanced CIWS employment and electronic warfare countermeasures

Unmanned Systems: The Critical Force Multiplier

Red Sea operations highlight the transformative potential of unmanned platforms to address cost asymmetry and capacity constraints, yet the Navy's current development timeline appears inadequate for emerging threats.

Current Unmanned Initiatives: The Navy has several unmanned programs in development, but their projected deployment schedules may prove too slow for rapidly evolving threat environments:

• MQ-25 Stingray carrier-based refueling drone: Expected to resolve aerial refueling constraints and provide reconnaissance capabilities, but full operational capability remains years away
• Surface unmanned vessels for distributed operations
• Unmanned underwater vehicles for reconnaissance and mine countermeasures

Accelerated Unmanned Requirements: The cost mathematics of Red Sea operations demand immediate acceleration of unmanned platform adoption. Unmanned interceptor systems could fundamentally alter defensive economics:

Expendable Interceptor Drones:

• Mass-producible unmanned aerial vehicles designed specifically for kamikaze intercepts
• Unit costs potentially under $50,000 per platform—finally achieving cost parity with threats
• Rapid production using commercial manufacturing techniques rather than defense industry timelines
• Deployment from surface ships, submarines, or land-based launchers

Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) for Distributed Defense: Current Houthi attacks demonstrate the vulnerability of concentrating defensive assets in high-value platforms. Unmanned surface vessels could revolutionize naval defense by:

• Deploying distributed sensor networks across wide areas
• Carrying defensive missiles without risking human crews
• Operating closer to threat areas than manned platforms
• Providing expendable defensive barriers around high-value assets

Autonomous Patrol Systems: The intelligence gathering limitations exposed in Red Sea operations—requiring external Air Force assets after losing 15 MQ-9 Reapers—highlight needs for dedicated naval unmanned surveillance platforms with greater survivability and integration with fleet operations.

Development Timeline Crisis: Current Navy unmanned development follows traditional defense acquisition timelines measured in decades. The Red Sea experience suggests this pace is fundamentally inadequate:

• Commercial drone technology advances in months, not years
• Threat systems evolve rapidly using commercial off-the-shelf components
• Traditional military specifications may prove counterproductive for rapidly evolving unmanned systems

Commercial Integration Opportunities: The Navy could dramatically accelerate unmanned capability development by leveraging commercial drone technology and manufacturing capacity:

• Adaptation of existing commercial platforms for military applications
• Rapid prototyping and deployment cycles
• Commercial manufacturing scale to achieve cost advantages
• Reduced development timelines from years to months

Force Structure Implications: Accelerated unmanned adoption could fundamentally alter naval force structure requirements. Rather than increasing expensive manned platforms, the Navy could deploy larger numbers of less capable but more expendable unmanned systems, potentially achieving better area coverage and threat saturation at lower overall costs.

The Navy's $2 billion annual munitions expenditure against asymmetric threats proves unsustainable while maintaining readiness for peer competitors. Unmanned platforms offer the potential to reverse cost asymmetry disadvantages, but only if development and deployment timelines accelerate dramatically beyond current acquisition practices.

Conclusion

Red Sea operations provide invaluable combat experience while exposing vulnerabilities that could prove catastrophic in near-peer conflict. The Navy's tactical adaptability succeeded in protecting forces and shipping, but strategic challenges demand immediate attention.

The implications for Taiwan conflict scenarios are sobering. Current missile production crisis—requiring 6.5 years to replace 12 days of combat expenditure—becomes existential when facing adversaries capable of thousands of simultaneous precision strikes. The cost asymmetry of expending billions against thousands proves mathematically impossible against Chinese capabilities.

Most critically, the Red Sea demonstrates that defensive excellence cannot achieve strategic objectives against adversaries with sanctuary status and unlimited resupply. Despite 18 months of tactical success, strategic failure persists through Iran's immunity from retaliation and continuous Houthi resupply.

The Unmanned Imperative: The Red Sea experience reveals that traditional approaches to naval warfare—expensive manned platforms firing costly precision munitions—cannot scale to meet distributed, persistent threats. Unmanned systems offer the potential to fundamentally reverse cost asymmetry disadvantages, but only if the Navy abandons traditional acquisition timelines in favor of commercial-speed development and deployment.

The choice facing naval leadership is stark: accelerate unmanned platform adoption to match the pace of threat evolution, or accept strategic irrelevance despite tactical superiority. Current development timelines measured in decades must compress to months to remain relevant against adversaries employing commercial technology for military purposes.

Without dramatic increases in both munitions production and unmanned platform deployment, tactical excellence could prove strategically irrelevant in high-intensity conflicts. The Navy must translate Red Sea lessons into capabilities adequate for great power competition, developing operational concepts that leverage unmanned systems to achieve cost-effective area denial and threat saturation.

"These crewmembers in the strike group are going to be the next generation of instructors, the next generation of assessors, the next generation of trainers," noted Rear Admiral Kavon Hakimzadeh. Their tactical expertise, combined with strategic adaptations emphasizing unmanned force multiplication and accelerated acquisition, will determine whether American naval power can prevail in the conflicts ahead.

The Red Sea has demonstrated both the continuing relevance of traditional naval power and its fundamental limitations against distributed, persistent threats. The Navy's response—balancing immediate munitions needs with transformative unmanned capabilities—will define maritime warfare for decades to come.

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Sources

1. U.S. Navy Official Releases:
   • U.S. Navy Press Office. "Unprecedented: Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group Returns from Combat Deployment." July 14, 2024. https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/3838261/unprecedented-dwight-d-eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-returns-from-combat-depl/
2. Naval Professional Publications:
   • Miguez, Marc. "Ike Carrier Strike Group and the Red Sea Crisis." Proceedings, Vol. 150/7/1,457, July 2024. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/july/ike-carrier-strike-group-and-red-sea-crisis
   • "U.S. Navy Year in Review." Proceedings, Vol. 151/3/1,465, March 2025. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2025/march/us-navy-year-review
3. Defense News and Analysis:
   • Walsh, Steve. "The USS Eisenhower's recent mission in the Red Sea previewed the future of naval warfare." American Homefront Project, August 5, 2024. https://americanhomefront.wunc.org/news/2024-08-05/the-uss-eisenhowers-recent-mission-in-the-red-sea-previewed-the-future-of-naval-warfare
   • Shelbourne, Mallory. "Carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Back in Red Sea, Passes 200-Day Deployment Mark." USNI News, May 6, 2024. https://news.usni.org/2024/05/06/carrier-uss-dwight-d-eisenhower-back-in-red-sea-passes-200-day-deployment-mark
4. Congressional and Policy Analysis:
   • "The U.S. Navy's Missile Production Problem Looks Dire." American Enterprise Institute, July 8, 2024. https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-u-s-navys-missile-production-problem-looks-dire/
   • "Why Is the U.S. Navy Running Out of Tomahawk Cruise Missiles?" American Enterprise Institute, February 13, 2024. https://www.aei.org/op-eds/why-is-the-u-s-navy-running-out-of-tomahawk-cruise-missiles/
5. Military News Services:
   • Copp, Tara. "Navy fired more than 200 missiles to fight off Red Sea shipping attacks, admiral says." Stars and Stripes, January 16, 2025. https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2025-01-16/houthis-navy-red-sea-missiles-drones-16500246.html
   • Reilly, Corey. "USS Eisenhower's combat deployment offers lessons for sailors across the Navy." Stars and Stripes, July 10, 2024. https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2024-07-10/eisenhower-houthi-middle-east-deployment-14441518.html
6. Defense Industry Publications:
   • Gould, Joe. "Supplier bottlenecks threaten US Navy effort to grow arms stockpiles." Defense News, February 6, 2024. https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2024/02/06/supplier-bottlenecks-threaten-us-navy-effort-to-grow-arms-stockpiles/
   • Tirpak, John A. "Raytheon aims to boost SM-3 missile production rates." Defense News, January 15, 2025. https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2025/01/15/raytheon-aims-to-boost-sm-3-missile-production-rates/
7. Think Tank and Academic Sources:
   • "The Siege of the Red Sea." Council on Foreign Relations, March 21, 2025. https://www.cfr.org/article/siege-red-sea
   • "A Red Sea hall of mirrors: US and Houthi statements vs. actions." ACLED, 2025. https://acleddata.com/report/red-sea-hall-mirrors-us-and-houthi-statements-vs-actions
8. International and Regional Analysis:
   • "Red Sea crisis." Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis
   • "March–May 2025 United States attacks in Yemen." Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March–May_2025_United_States_attacks_in_Yemen
9. Specialized Military Analysis:
   • Nikolov, Boyko. "US Navy bolsters air defense with massive SM-6 missile order." Bulgarian Military, January 9, 2025. https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2025/01/09/us-navy-bolsters-air-defense-with-massive-sm-6-missile-order/
   • "U.S. Navy Begins Sustained Combat Operations Against Houthi Forces." Naval News, March 17, 2025. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/03/u-s-navy-begins-sustained-combat-operations-against-houthi-forces/

Red Sea Operations: Lessons from Naval Combat | Claude | Claude

How Houthis Nearly Maxed Out U.S. Navy Air Defenses - YouTube

Varda, LeoLabs, and Anduril demonstrate on-orbit maneuver tracking and AI-enabled software integration in advance of a hypersonic reentry

Varda’s W-3 capsule after landing the Koonibba Test Range in South Australia. Photo: Varda

Commercial Space Firms Demonstrate Real-Time Hypersonic Tracking Capabilities

A groundbreaking collaboration between Varda Space Industries, LeoLabs, and Anduril showcases how commercial innovation is revolutionizing space domain awareness and missile defense

By Claude Anthropic AI | September 13, 2025

In a remarkable demonstration of how commercial space companies are reshaping national security capabilities, three innovative firms recently proved they could track and predict the trajectory of objects traveling at hypersonic speeds—more than 25 times the speed of sound. The successful test, announced September 8, represents a significant milestone in space domain awareness and could have profound implications for missile defense systems.

The Breakthrough Demonstration

The joint demonstration centered on Varda Space Industries' W-3 capsule, which performed a series of orbital maneuvers before its hypersonic reentry on May 13, 2025. With cues from Varda, LeoLabs' Global Radar Network tracked the vehicle's on-orbit maneuvers. The LeoLabs data was then integrated with Anduril's Lattice, an AI-enabled software platform that provides resilient mesh networking and low-latency communications across a global network of sensors, to provide distributed users with real-time situational awareness of on-orbit maneuvers.

What made this demonstration particularly significant was its speed of implementation. Orchestrated in under a week, the effort showcases the agility of emerging and scaling space companies to rapidly identify use cases, conduct R&D, and iterate at speed. This rapid deployment capability stands in stark contrast to traditional defense procurement timelines that can span years or decades.

The Technology Stack

Varda's Hypersonic Testbed

At the heart of the demonstration was Varda Space Industries' unique reentry vehicle, which serves as both a commercial space manufacturing platform and a hypersonic research testbed. The W-3 capsule reentered Earth's atmosphere at speeds that exceeded Mach 25, creating extreme conditions that are impossible to replicate in ground-based testing facilities.

Varda's orbital capsule enters the atmosphere at 18,000 miles per hour. The capsule hits Mach 25+ on every mission before landing by parachute on Earth. This offers a real flight environment for hypersonic reentry vehicle subsystems such as thermal protective materials, navigation, communication, and sensors. The company's approach addresses a critical gap in hypersonic research capabilities, where the hypersonic regime currently lacks a sufficient number of real-world testing environments to support the rapid test cadence required to derisk our most advanced aerospace vehicles and systems.

LeoLabs' Radar Network Evolution

LeoLabs contributed its Global Radar Network, which has evolved significantly to meet emerging space domain awareness challenges. The company recently unveiled its next-generation Scout radar system, a containerized S-band Direct Radiating Array (DRA) radar system that can be easily transported for rapid deployment to any location worldwide in response to dynamic Space Domain Awareness (SDA) missions, including monitoring foreign launches.

LeoLabs already operates 11 active radars at seven fixed sites around the world, providing satellite operators and defense organizations with detailed data on the movement of satellites and debris. The company tracks 23,000+ objects, and can detect debris down to about 10 cm in size. The Scout system extends this capability with unprecedented mobility and flexibility.

The strategic importance of this expansion cannot be overstated. "Our intent is with dozens of these systems deployed, we would be able to provide full coverage, where today, because of some of the limitations of networks like the Space Surveillance Network, those systems are really powerful radars … but most of them are clustered in the Northern Hemisphere," Frazier said. "There's big gaps in in the Southern Hemisphere and equatorial regions, over open oceans, where having this distributed network you would be able to fill those gaps and give the adversary less opportunities to maneuver."

Anduril's AI Integration Platform

The third component of this technological trinity was Anduril's Lattice platform, which served as the neural network connecting disparate sensor data into actionable intelligence. Lattice AI is an advanced software platform that powers Anduril's suite of defense solutions, enabling them to function as an integrated ecosystem. This platform is designed to process vast amounts of sensor data in real-time, providing a comprehensive situational awareness crucial for modern military operations.

Anduril's family of systems is powered by Lattice, an AI software platform that turns thousands of data streams into a realtime, 3D command and control center. The platform's ability to rapidly integrate new data sources was demonstrated by the successful incorporation of LeoLabs' radar data in less than a week.

National Security Implications

The demonstration comes at a time of heightened concern about hypersonic weapons and space-based threats. A recent think tank report warns that a wave of emerging weapons such as hypersonic glide vehicles, scramjet cruise missiles, and maneuvering reentry vehicles could evade today's missile defenses due to their high speed and unpredictable maneuvers.

However, the same characteristics that make hypersonic weapons challenging to defend against may also create new opportunities for detection. "Hypersonic weapons, the things that make them so dangerous are also what make them so vulnerable," said Masao Dahlgren, a Missile Defense Project fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

Government Investment and Interest

The U.S. government has recognized the potential of these commercial capabilities, with significant investments flowing to support their development. LeoLabs has secured a Tactical Funding Increase (TACFI) to support a software upgrade for its expeditionary Scout-class radar, as part of broader US efforts to advance Space Domain Awareness (SDA). The $4-million award, comprising $2 million from the Air Force Research Laboratory and $2 million in private capital, was issued through SpaceWERX, the US Space Force's innovation arm.

This builds on earlier investments, including a $60 million Strategic Funding Increase for startup LeoLabs last month to build a new radar at a to-be-determined site in the Indo-Pacific.

Integration with Larger Defense Systems

The commercial demonstration aligns with broader Pentagon efforts to develop comprehensive missile defense capabilities. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and Space Development Agency (SDA) are currently developing elements of a missile defense system that may be able to defend against hypersonic weapons and other emerging missile threats.

The Pentagon is developing space-based sensors that can distinguish missile threats from clutter as a key part of the Trump administration's Golden Dome missile defense initiative. The success of the commercial demonstration suggests that public-private partnerships could accelerate the development and deployment of these critical capabilities.

Future Prospects and Challenges

Expanding Capabilities

The three companies are already planning to expand their collaboration. In a future experiment, the companies are exploring opportunities to expand the demonstration to use LeoLabs' new Scout radar to detect a Varda capsule as it reenters at hypersonic speed. This would represent an even more challenging technical achievement, as tracking objects during the violent reentry phase requires detecting signatures through the plasma envelope that forms around hypersonic vehicles.

Scientific and Commercial Applications

Beyond defense applications, the technology demonstrated has significant implications for civilian space operations. As space becomes increasingly congested with satellites, debris, and commercial activities, the ability to track and predict the movements of objects at all speeds becomes critical for space traffic management.

Varda's approach also opens new possibilities for materials science research. Varda demonstrated the pharmaceutical processing equipment inside W-1 by growing crystals of Form III of the antiretroviral drug ritonavir. The company's vision extends beyond defense applications to creating "the infrastructure needed to make low Earth orbit accessible to multiple industries, from in-orbit production equipment to reliable and economical reentry capsules."

Global Competition and Strategic Considerations

The demonstration takes place against a backdrop of intensifying space competition. In 2024, LeoLabs tracked 253 successful launches to low Earth orbit — 155 of those by the U.S. and 86 by its adversaries, including 65 launched by China. This rapid growth in space activity makes space domain awareness increasingly critical for national security.

The ability to rapidly deploy tracking capabilities anywhere in the world could prove crucial for monitoring activities in contested regions. According to the Air & Space Forces Magazine report, interest on ground-based radars has been growing, as the U.S. Space Force is pursuing improved space domain awareness, or SDA, as one of its top priorities.

Technical Challenges and Innovations

The Physics of Hypersonic Detection

Tracking hypersonic objects presents unique technical challenges that the demonstration successfully addressed. It is impossible to replicate the coupled aero-thermal-chemistry conditions at high-hypersonic flights on the ground. Varda's capsule experiences sustained plasma conditions in flight: 300W/cm² heat flux. 18,000K+ in the flow field.

These extreme conditions create both challenges and opportunities for detection systems. The intense heat and plasma formation that occur during hypersonic flight can interfere with some tracking methods while potentially making objects more visible to others.

AI and Machine Learning Integration

The successful integration of AI-powered analysis represents a significant advance in processing complex sensor data. The platform's AI algorithms can make autonomous decisions, directing dependent systems to investigate areas of interest or respond to threats without human intervention.

This capability becomes increasingly important as the volume and complexity of space traffic grows. Traditional approaches to space surveillance that rely primarily on human operators analyzing individual tracks cannot scale to meet the demands of an increasingly congested space environment.

Looking Forward

The September demonstration represents more than a technological achievement; it signals a fundamental shift in how critical national security capabilities are developed and deployed. The ability of three commercial companies to organize, execute, and prove a complex space domain awareness capability in under a week demonstrates the potential for commercial innovation to enhance national security.

"Regular, rigorous component and systems testing for defense modernization is incredibly important," said Varda CEO Will Bruey. "Varda is doing that today as the lowest-cost, highest-cadence platform to fly at speeds higher than Mach 25. This is a leapfrog capability that only America has."

As space becomes an increasingly contested domain and hypersonic weapons proliferate globally, the technologies demonstrated in this collaboration may prove crucial for maintaining strategic stability and protecting national interests. The success of this commercial partnership suggests that the future of space domain awareness will be built not just by traditional defense contractors, but by the innovative spirit and rapid iteration capabilities of the commercial space sector.

The implications extend beyond defense to scientific research, commercial space operations, and international cooperation in space. As Varda aims to "make reentry as common as launch," the technologies proven in this demonstration could become the foundation for a new era of routine hypersonic flight and space commerce.

SIDEBAR: SBIRs

Specific SBIR Contract Details:

1. LeoLabs AFWERX Contract: SBIR Phase II Contract $1.245M for S-band 2-D Direct Radiating Array (DRA)

2. LeoLabs Arizona Radar: UHF Planar DRA radar partially funded by 2023 Direct to Phase II SBIR award from AFWERX

3. MSBAI OrbitGuard Contract: Direct-to-Phase II SBIR contract $1.2M originated from Department of Defense Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO), selected by Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), executed by Air Force Digital Transformation Office (DTO)

4. Surface Optics Contract: $1M SBIR Phase II contract from Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) for hypersonic missile detection

Specific SBIR Topic Numbers:

• Space Force Open Topic: SBIR Topic #12161 including Critical Technology Areas of Space Domain Awareness (SDA) and Hypersonics

• Navy Hypersonic Cruise Missile Defense: SBIR Topic N212-112 (2021.2 BAA), RT&L Focus Area: Hypersonics

• Navy Hypersonic Detection: Navy SBIR Topic N231-020 (23.1 BAA) for EO/IR sensors

• Navy Radar Seeker: Navy SBIR Topic N211-097 (21.1 BAA), RT&L Focus Area: Hypersonics

 

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Sources

1. Varda Space Industries, LeoLabs, and Anduril Industries. (2025, September 8). "Varda, LeoLabs, and Anduril demonstrate on-orbit maneuver tracking and AI-enabled software integration in advance of a hypersonic reentry." PR Newswire. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/varda-leolabs-and-anduril-demonstrate-on-orbit-maneuver-tracking-and-ai-enabled-software-integration-in-advance-of-a-hypersonic-reentry-302549490.html
2. Via Satellite. (2025, May 14). "Varda Space Capsule Successfully Returns to Earth After Hypersonic Reentry Test." https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2025/05/14/varda-space-capsule-successfully-returns-to-earth-after-hypersonic-reentry-test/
3. Erwin, S. (2025, May 14). "Varda Space reentry capsule lands in Australia, completes hypersonic research mission." SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/varda-space-reentry-capsule-lands-in-australia-completes-hypersonic-research-mission/
4. Defense News. (2025, May 14). "Varda lands third space capsule, carrying key hypersonic flight data." https://www.defensenews.com/space/2025/05/14/varda-lands-third-space-capsule-carrying-key-hypersonic-flight-data/
5. LeoLabs. (2025, April 7). "LeoLabs Announces Next-Generation Expeditionary Radar for Advanced Space Domain Awareness Missions." https://leolabs.space/press/leolabs-announces-next-generation-expeditionary-radar-for-advanced-space-domain-awareness-missions/
6. Albon, C. (2025, April 7). "LeoLabs to deploy expeditionary Scout radar to Indo-Pacific this year." Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/space/2025/04/07/leolabs-to-deploy-expeditionary-scout-radar-to-indo-pacific-this-year/
7. Hitchens, T. (2025, April 15). "Pentagon Looks to Ground Radars for Space Domain Awareness." Air & Space Forces Magazine. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/pentagon-ground-based-radars-space-domain-awareness/
8. Maher, T. (2024, December 10). "Anduril pulls back curtain on 'Lattice' AI system." InsideDefense.com. https://insidedefense.com/daily-news/anduril-pulls-back-curtain-lattice-ai-system
9. Dahlgren, M. (2023, December 20). "Why Hypersonic Missiles' Greatest Strength Also Makes Them Vulnerable: New Report." Air & Space Forces Magazine. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/hypersonic-missiles-tracking-space-sensor/
10. Congressional Research Service. (2025, May 15). "Hypersonic Missile Defense: Issues for Congress." USNI News. https://news.usni.org/2025/05/20/report-to-congress-hypersonic-missile-defense
11. Hitchens, T. (2025, May 15). "Pentagon to Deploy Space Sensor as Part of Golden Dome." Air & Space Forces Magazine. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/discriminating-space-sensor-golden-dome/
12. The Defense Post. (2025, July 7). "LeoLabs to Advance Next-Gen Scout-Class Radar With US Funding." https://thedefensepost.com/2025/07/04/leolabs-scout-class-radar-us/
13. ExecutiveBiz. (2025, September 9). "Varda, LeoLabs, Anduril Demonstrate Hypersonic Reentry." https://www.executivebiz.com/articles/varda-leolabs-anduril-hypersonic-reentry-demo
14. Payload Space. (2025, April 7). "LeoLabs Unveils Scout Mobile Radar System." https://payloadspace.com/leolabs-unveils-scout-mobile-radar-system/
15. Defense Update. (2024, January 6). "Anduril's Lattice AI." https://defense-update.com/20231222_lattice-ai.html
16. Varda, LeoLabs, and Anduril demonstrate on-orbit maneuver tracking and AI-enabled software integration in advance of a hypersonic reentry

U.S. Navy Advances Next-Generation AI-Powered Submarine Combat Systems

AN/BYG-1 is an open-architecture submarine combat control system that integrates tactical control, payload and weapons control, information assurance, and a number of smaller subsystems and applications General Dynamics Mission Systems (Incumbent)

Multi-billion dollar initiative to integrate machine learning tactical assistants across submarine fleet by 2027

The U.S. Navy has launched an ambitious effort to revolutionize submarine warfare capabilities through the integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning combat assistants, marking a significant shift toward autonomous undersea warfare systems.

Major Combat System Overhaul

The Navy's Program Executive Office for Undersea Weapons Systems (PEO UWS) and Submarine Combat and Weapons Control Program Office (PMS 425) recently issued a comprehensive Request for Information (RFI) outlining plans to modernize the AN/BYG-1 combat system—the Navy's primary undersea warfare platform deployed across all active submarines and those operated by the Royal Australian Navy.

The initiative encompasses three core capability updates: tactical control re-architecture, payload re-architecture, and most significantly, the development of new Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Tactical Decision Aids (AI/ML TDA). The contract award is scheduled for July 2027, with a base year and four option years that could extend through 2032.

Proven Virtual Technology Foundation

The Navy's confidence in AI integration stems from successful deployment of the AN/BYG-1 Virtual Twin (vTwin) system, which achieved major milestones in 2020-2021. Developed by Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Division Newport, the vTwin provides equivalent combat control functionality in one-fourth the hardware footprint of traditional systems.

The vTwin successfully completed live-fire demonstrations in September 2020, launching exercise torpedoes and deploying machine learning applications at sea. The system demonstrated the Navy's goal of "Compile to Combat in 24 Hours" (C2C24)—the ability to rapidly deploy new capabilities from development to operational use.

Revolutionary Torpedo Technology

Central to the modernization effort is the Mk 58 Compact Rapid Attack Weapon (CRAW), a revolutionary 6.75-inch diameter torpedo that represents a paradigm shift in submarine armament. Developed through the Office of Naval Research's Project Revolver, CRAW enables multiple torpedoes to be packed into single launch tubes, dramatically increasing magazine depth.

Two variants are under development: Technology Insertion 1 (TI-1), led by Penn State University Applied Research Laboratory, focuses on rapid deployment of anti-submarine capabilities with Early Operational Capability expected by FY2026. Technology Insertion 2 (TI-2), developed by Raytheon, emphasizes mass production and enhanced counter-torpedo capabilities for both submarines and surface ships, with initial deliveries also planned for FY2026.

The Revolver Multi-Payload system allows Virginia-class submarines to deploy "a dozen or more torpedoes" in coordinated attacks, responding to urgent operational requirements from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and U.S. Strategic Command—likely related to potential Taiwan Strait scenarios.

Expanding Unmanned Capabilities

The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) is simultaneously advancing unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) programs that integrate with the new combat systems. Recent solicitations seek 12.75-inch diameter "one-way attack" UUVs capable of autonomous operations, while larger Combat Autonomous Maritime Platform (CAMP) vessels will handle extensive payload deployment missions.

In February 2024, DIU awarded contracts to Oceaneering International, Kongsberg Discovery, and Anduril Industries for Large Displacement Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (LDUUVs), with live demonstrations conducted throughout 2024. These platforms extend submarine reach while keeping crews away from contested environments.

AUKUS Alliance Integration

The modernization extends beyond U.S. forces, with the SSN AUKUS submarine program—a trilateral initiative between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—set to feature an "evolved version" of the AN/BYG-1 system. Australian Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy confirmed this decision represents lessons learned from the Collins-class program, emphasizing proven technology over new development.

The first Australian SSN AUKUS vessels will begin construction this decade using Australian steel meeting or exceeding both UK and US pressure hull standards, with delivery scheduled for the early 2040s.

Advanced Fleet Integration

The new framework demands containerization of AN/BYG-1 capabilities, integration of third-party systems, and incremental software builds every thirteen weeks. The system will manage both current weapons like heavyweight torpedoes and Tomahawk cruise missiles, and emerging technologies including unmanned aerial systems and undersea countermeasures.

General Dynamics Mission Systems continues as the primary systems integrator, with ongoing technology insertion programs maintaining cutting-edge commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) computer integration. The company recently secured contracts exceeding $34 million for continued upgrades through 2025.

Strategic Implications

The timing reflects growing concerns about underwater warfare in the Pacific region, where adversaries are rapidly developing their own unmanned capabilities. The integration of AI tactical assistants represents the Navy's recognition that future undersea conflicts will require rapid decision-making beyond human capability in high-contact density environments.

Navy officials emphasize the modular approach allows continuous capability enhancement through spiral development, ensuring technological superiority as threats evolve. The initiative positions the U.S. submarine force to maintain dominance in an increasingly contested underwater domain.

As the Navy prepares for potential conflicts involving multiple simultaneous threats, these AI-powered combat systems may prove decisive in maintaining America's undersea warfare advantage well into the 2030s and beyond.

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SIDEBAR: Inside the Navy's AN/BYG-1 Modernization RFI

Contract Details:

• Issuing Office: Program Executive Office Undersea Weapons Systems (PEO UWS) Submarine Combat and Weapons Control Program Office (PMS 425)
• Award Timeline: July 2027 (notional)
• Contract Structure: One base year plus four option years
• Delivery Requirement: Ready-to-run, certified, fully-tested production hardware and software suite

Core Capability Requirements:

1. Tactical Control Re-architecture

• Containerization of existing AN/BYG-1 capabilities
• Integration of third-party systems and applications
• Enhanced sensor data processing from onboard systems
• Integration of off-hull information into tactical picture
• Improved contact and decision management tools

2. Payload Re-architecture

• Integration of new strike components
• Continued integration of Compact Rapid Attack Weapon (CRAW)
• Support for unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV)
• Integration of heavyweight torpedoes (HWT)
• Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) compatibility
• Enhanced undersea countermeasures

3. AI/ML Tactical Decision Aids (TDA)

• Machine learning algorithms for tactical decision support
• Automated threat assessment and prioritization
• Real-time data fusion and analysis
• Predictive targeting capabilities
• Enhanced situational awareness in high-contact density environments

Technical Specifications:

• Software Delivery: Incremental builds every 13 weeks
• Platform Coverage: U.S. Navy, Royal Australian Navy, and potential AUKUS Joint Program Office submarines
• System Integration: Current, future, and legacy AN/BYG-1 applications
• Architecture: New framework for streamlined capability delivery

Operational Focus Areas:

• Mission planning and execution
• Training system integration
• Payload command and control
• Weapons employment for contact management
• Both current and future tactical applications
• Combat control capabilities

Strategic Goals: According to PEO UWS, the new framework will support "processing of information from onboard sensors, integration of off-hull information into the tactical picture, and employment weapons for contact and decision management, mission planning, training, payload command and control, and other capabilities related to both current and future tactical, payload, and combat control applications."

The RFI represents the Navy's most comprehensive submarine combat system modernization effort since the original AN/BYG-1 deployment, positioning the service for next-generation undersea warfare challenges.

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SIDEBAR: Prime Contractors Expected to Compete for AN/BYG-1 Modernization

Current Market Leaders:

General Dynamics Mission Systems (Incumbent)

• Current Role: Prime systems integrator for AN/BYG-1 through its Progeny Systems division
• Track Record: $100+ million in recent AN/BYG-1 contracts since 2020, including TI-14, TI-16 technology insertions
• Facilities: Pittsfield, MA (primary); Fairfax, VA
• Advantages: Deep institutional knowledge, proven integration capabilities, existing workforce
• Key Systems: Tactical Control System (TCS), Payload Control System (PCS), Common Weapon Launcher (CWL)

Lockheed Martin

• Current Role: Electronic warfare systems (AN/BLQ-10), imaging systems (AN/BVY-1 ISIS), Australian program leadership
• Recent Wins: $1.36 billion AN/BLQ-10 contract (February 2025), $47 million EW upgrades (2024)
• Facilities: Syracuse, NY; Manassas, VA; Adelaide, Australia
• Advantages: AI/ML expertise, AUKUS integration experience, submarine combat system heritage spanning 40+ years
• Strategic Position: Lead combat system integrator for Australian submarines, strong international partnerships

Raytheon Technologies (RTX)

• Historical Role: Original AN/BYG-1 developer (as CCS Mk2), CRAW torpedo TI-2 contractor
• Current Systems: Tomahawk missiles, MK 54 torpedoes, naval radar systems
• Facilities: Portsmouth, RI; various defense electronics locations
• Advantages: Original system architecture knowledge, advanced missile integration, naval weapons expertise
• Recent Activity: $18 million in CRAW prototyping contracts, naval combat systems portfolio

Emerging Competitors:

Northrop Grumman

• Capabilities: Electronic warfare, cyber systems, autonomous platforms, AI/ML applications
• Submarine Experience: Various sonar and electronic systems
• Advantages: Advanced automation technologies, cybersecurity expertise
• Market Position: Strong in AI-driven defense systems

BAE Systems

• International Presence: Major European defense contractor with US operations
• Submarine Systems: UK submarine combat systems (BAECCS), naval electronics
• Advantages: AUKUS partnership, international submarine experience
• Recent Wins: $251 million AEGIS Combat System contract (February 2025)

L3Harris Technologies

• Specialties: Communications, electronic warfare, maritime systems
• Submarine Experience: Various submarine electronics and communications systems
• Advantages: Advanced communications technologies, naval integration experience
• Growth Areas: AI-enabled systems, autonomous platforms

AI-Specialized Companies Expected to Compete:

Palantir Technologies

• Core Capabilities: Data fusion, AI platform (AIP), Maven Smart System, machine learning algorithms
• Defense Track Record: $480 million Maven Smart System contract, $178 million Army TITAN program
• Submarine Relevance: Real-time data integration, AI-driven decision support, tactical intelligence processing
• Strategic Position: Proven at scale with sensitive government data, experience in complex multi-source integration

Anduril Industries

• AI Platform: Lattice OS autonomous decision-making system, edge AI processing
• Recent Wins: $100 million CDAO edge data integration contract, Replicator initiative participation
• Submarine Applications: Autonomous systems integration, AI-powered sensor fusion, real-time threat detection
• Advantages: Modern AI architecture, rapid development cycles, demonstrated autonomous platform integration
• Partnership: Strategic alliance with Palantir announced December 2024

Scale AI

• Specialization: AI/ML model training, data labeling, autonomous system development
• Government Contracts: Recent DOD flagship AI agent program, Army Robotic Combat Vehicle software
• Submarine Potential: Machine learning algorithm development, AI model training for tactical scenarios
• Focus: Training AI systems for complex military environments

C3.ai

• Platform: Enterprise AI applications, predictive analytics, real-time data processing
• Defense Experience: U.S. Air Force partnerships, collaboration with major defense contractors
• Submarine Applications: Predictive maintenance, operational optimization, sensor data analytics
• Advantages: Enterprise-scale AI deployment, proven industrial applications

Technology Giants with Defense AI Programs:

Google (Alphabet)

• Recent Development: $200 million Pentagon AI contract (July 2025) for advanced AI workflows
• Capabilities: TensorFlow, cloud computing, machine learning at scale
• Considerations: Previous employee resistance to military projects, policy restrictions

OpenAI

• Recent Development: $200 million Pentagon contract, partnership with Anduril for defense applications
• Capabilities: Large language models, advanced AI reasoning, real-time processing
• Applications: Natural language interfaces for combat systems, AI-assisted decision making

Anthropic

• Defense Entry: $200 million Pentagon AI contract (July 2025)
• Capabilities: Constitutional AI, safety-focused AI systems, complex reasoning
• Submarine Potential: Reliable AI decision-making in high-stakes environments

IBM

• Defense Portfolio: Extensive government contracts, AI Watson platform, quantum computing research
• Submarine Experience: Long history with military computing systems
• Partnership: Collaboration with Lockheed Martin on DOD AI challenges

Contract Strategy Considerations:

Likely Approach: The Navy may pursue a hybrid strategy, potentially selecting:

• Prime Integrator: General Dynamics (incumbent advantage) vs. Lockheed Martin (AI/international experience)
• Major Subcontractors: Multiple firms contributing specialized AI/ML capabilities, electronic warfare systems, and advanced computing platforms
• Technology Partners: Universities and specialized AI firms for machine learning algorithm development

Competitive Factors:

• Technical Innovation: AI/ML algorithm sophistication, real-time processing capabilities
• Integration Experience: Proven ability to integrate complex submarine systems without disrupting operations
• International Compatibility: AUKUS requirements and allied system interoperability
• Cost Effectiveness: Life-cycle cost management and technology refresh capabilities
• Schedule Performance: Ability to meet 2027 deployment timeline with 13-week software delivery cycles

Industry Intel: Sources suggest the competition will likely focus on AI/ML implementation approaches, with traditional submarine contractors partnering with technology firms to enhance their artificial intelligence capabilities. The winner will need to demonstrate both submarine domain expertise and cutting-edge AI integration skills.

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Sources

1. Johnston, Carter. "U.S. Navy Begins Search for Machine Learning Combat Assistants on Submarines." Naval News, September 5, 2025. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/09/u-s-navy-begins-search-for-machine-learning-combat-assistants-on-submarines
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13. Mehta, Aaron. "Defense Innovation Unit seeks undersea drone capable of 'long-range' payload deployment." Breaking Defense, April 17, 2025. https://breakingdefense.com/2025/04/defense-innovation-unit-seeks-undersea-drone-capable-of-long-range-payload-deployment/
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16. U.S. Navy Begins Search for Machine Learning Combat Assistants on Submarines - Naval News