More than 40 Chinese naval vessels gather in the Philippines in the South China Sea

Thursday, March 9, 2023

More than 40 Chinese naval vessels gather in the Philippines in the South China Sea - [My commentary] If Japan and Australia jointly operate submarines, even if the US forces become weak in the South China Sea, it will be possible to keep China in check (ﾟдﾟ)!

More than 40 Chinese warships gather in South China Sea islands

Tomohiko Otsuka (freelance journalist)

"Tomohiko Otsuka's Southeast Asian Kaleidoscope"

[ Summary]

・Chinese warships gathered in the waters around Paguaça Island in the Spratly Islands, which is effectively controlled by the Philippines.

・China's demonstrations against the Philippines are conspicuous around the Spratly islands.

・Although it was decided that the " nine-dash line " violated international law, China has completely ignored it to date.

Since March 4, more than 40 ships, including Chinese Navy, Coast Guard ships, and ships boarded by maritime militia, have gathered in the waters surrounding the islands in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea that the Philippines continues to effectively control, harassing the Philippines. The Philippine Coast Guard announced on the 7th that it is continuing.

China has been holding the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing since March 5. At the same time, China has unilaterally declared its maritime rights and interests to the extent of the "nine-dash line," which is the scope of China's maritime interests. are believed to be increasing pressure on

According to the Philippine Coast Guard, it has become clear that Chinese ships are concentrated in the waters around Paguaça Island in the Spratly Islands, which are effectively controlled by the Philippines.

According to the survey, 42 vessels believed to be manned by maritime militiamen were confirmed, in addition to Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy vessels and Coast Guard vessel No. 5203.

These Chinese ships were confirmed to be deployed in the same waters on March 4, and are said to remain in the same waters as of March 7.

* About 400 people live on the island of Paguaça.

　Paguaça Island, located in the South China Sea about 483 kilometers west of Puerto Princesa, Palawan in the southern Philippines, is the second largest island in the Spratly Islands. A total of about 400 citizens (including 70 children) live here.

　The island also has a 1,400-meter runway and is administratively part of the province of Palawan.

　About 25 kilometers southwest of Paguaça Island is Subi Reef, which China has turned into a military base.

　The Subi Reef was originally ruled by Vietnam but was seized by China in 1988. Since then, reclamation work has been carried out, a 3,000-meter-class runway and radar facilities have been constructed, and naval soldiers have been stationed, making it a complete military base.

　Due to its proximity to the Subi Reef, Paguaça Island has often been harassed by China, and in 2020, more than 100 Chinese fishing boats stormed the waters around the island and staged a demonstration.

　Also, on November 20, 2022, parts believed to be wreckage from a large Chinese rocket were discovered in the waters near Paguaça Island. A rubber boat with Philippine navy soldiers was towing this part in the waters near the sandbar of Paguaça Island. There is also a situation of seizing wreckage parts.

　At this time, the Philippine Coast Guard also explained that it was 'interfered, the rope was cut and it was stolen,' but the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, 'The Philippine side was the first to find the floating object and salvage it and tow it. After discussion, the Philippine side returned it to China.

★ Repeated warnings to the Chinese side

　The Philippine Coast Guard radioed a group of more than 40 unmoving Chinese ships gathered around Paguaça Island to warn them, "The area is within Philippine territorial waters. Leave immediately." repeating.

　However, the Chinese side has been completely ignoring it without any response.

　So far, President Marcos has not commented on the incident in Paguaça Island. China's ambassador to the Philippines was summoned to the Presidential Palace to directly express his regret in response to the laser irradiation incident, and it is possible that China will be dealt with even more severely in the future. .

　On February 21, during a patrol and surveillance flight over the South China Sea, a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft spotted about 30 Chinese ships gathering around Sabina Shoal, which is within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). intercepted the radio, but it was meaningless, and on the contrary, ordered the Chinese ships to leave the area from the aircraft.

　Similar incidents were also confirmed on the same day in the waters around Ayungin Reef, which is effectively controlled by the Philippines.

China's unilateral claims and actions

　Based on the "nine-dash line" that occupies most of the South China Sea, China is proceeding with military bases one after another through reclamation work on islands and atolls. The islands are also subject to repeated sabotage and harassment, even though they are within the Philippine territorial waters and EEZ as "the range of China's maritime interests."

　In addition to the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei are also competing with China over the South China Sea.

　In 2014, then-Philippine President Benigno Aquino sued the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, the Netherlands, over China's one-sided claim to the nine-dash line.

　In 2016, the PCA ruled that China's historical claims to the nine-dash line and the waters surrounding it have no legal basis under international law and violate international law.

　However, China continues to completely ignore this judgment to this day, as its claims have not been recognized internationally.

　The international community has already seen that China's attitude is self-contradictory and self-contradictory, inconsistent with clichés such as "observance of the law," "international cooperation," and "solution of problems through dialogue."

　In today's China, the use of words such as "remorse" and "apology" is impossible as long as the Chinese Communist Party continues to rule, no matter how much responsibility lies with the government. I'm doing it.

[My commentary] If Japan and Australia jointly operate submarines, even if the US forces become weak in the South China Sea, it will be possible to keep China in check (ﾟдﾟ)!

Amid ongoing tensions in the Philippines, Reuters reported on the 8th, citing multiple US officials, that Australia will launch US-made Virginia-class aircraft based on the agreement of the US-UK-Australia security framework "AUKUS." China is expected to purchase up to five nuclear-powered attack submarines in the 2030s.

It is said that the plan to introduce an Australian nuclear submarine will be discussed at the Orcas Summit held in San Diego, California on the 13th.

Australia purchased three Virginia-class nuclear submarines in the early 1930s and is considering procuring two more. In the late 1930s, there were plans to build a new submarine that incorporated American technology into British designs. In addition, the United States will send its own submarines to Australia every year, aiming to deploy several submarines in western Australia by around 2027.

In addition to the East and South China Seas, China is also trying to expand into distant waters. The United States and the United Kingdom intend to counter China by supporting Australian submarines so that they can operate in a wide range of waters.

According to the White House, President Biden will hold individual talks with Australian Prime Minister Albany Zi and British Prime Minister Sunak in addition to the Orcus summit on the 13th.

In 2018, the Chinese military deployed anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles mainly on three of the seven artificial islands (i.e. forward military bases) built in the South China Sea that have runways where fighter planes can take off and land. , China's air superiority and maritime superiority in the South China Sea have improved dramatically, and Japan's oil sea lanes have also become a major concern.

As you can see from the map below, our sea lanes are surrounded by Chinese military bases.

China's threat to the Philippines in this waters is also a threat to our country. It can be said that China is preparing for trade obstruction and trade destruction against Japan.

The United States is now the world's superpower. In the United States, the Joe Biden administration has taken a strong stance against China's military hegemony. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Krittenbrink told the House Foreign Relations Committee on February 28 that the United States will continue to oppose China's threats to Okinawa, the Senkaku Islands, and Taiwan.

As China and authoritarian countries such as Russia and North Korea strengthen cooperation, the United States is launching diplomatic offensives around the world. Experts have analyzed that the United States has entered a "wartime regime." Mr. Krittenbrink, who is in charge of East Asia and the Pacific, expressed his stance that he will not overlook China's threats and provocations over the South China Sea, the East China Sea, including the Senkaku Islands, and the Taiwan Strait, in written testimony submitted in advance to the Commission.

Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Krittenbrink

However, despite the fact that the United States is a superpower, its military power is limited. In the event of a large-scale conflict in the world, the United States can respond with a two-front operation, but it cannot go as far as a three-front operation. Even so, if you carry out a three-front strategy, you will end up with a small amount of military strength, and in the worst case, you will be defeated on all fronts.

At present, it is difficult to imagine that the United States will be forced to carry out a three-front operation, as Russia is preoccupied with the Ukrainian war, but there is no doubt that it will not be for eternity. No warranty.

However, Japan, the United States, Australia, etc. and China, Russia, etc. are completely different in that Japan and the United States have many allies and quasi-allies. It is the achievement of the Abe administration that Japan has been able to make many friends in the past, where it was completely obsessed with the United States.

When the United States is stuck in a two-front operation, if a major conflict occurs, allies, quasi-allies, and allies, especially those countries in the vicinity, will take charge of the other front while cooperating with each other. Of course. Otherwise, you're giving China and Russia an opening to take advantage of.

In particular, if China were to take military action in the Philippines and elsewhere, Japan and Australia should work together to counter it. In particular, Japan imports a large amount of crude oil from the Middle East, and there are sea lanes near the Philippines that must be protected at all costs.

Australia is also an oil producing country. However, there is pressure from China, such as Chinese warships sailing near Australia, and the South China Sea is relatively close to Australia.

Now that China has deployed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles to its military bases in the South China Sea, both aircraft and ships are targets for China. Submarines are quite effective against this. This is because, as this blog has posted several times, China's ASW (Anti Submarine Wafare) capabilities are considerably inferior to those of Japan and the United States.

Therefore, the possession of nuclear submarines by Australia is a considerable check against China. In particular, when the United States is forced to engage in a two-front operation, Japan and Australia can jointly strengthen surveillance of the South China Sea and restraint on China.

If Japan, the United States and Australia cooperate on a regular basis to monitor the South China Sea, it will be easier to share information and cooperate in times of emergency.

Australia chose to have a nuclear submarine, but Japan, on the other hand, should consider it, even though I don't think there is much need for it.

The main threats to Japan's maritime security are China and North Korea, both of which are very close geographically. The Maritime Self-Defense Force's conventionally powered attack submarines (SSKs), already in force at 22, are excellent platforms for operations in the Seas of Japan, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea, as well as the Western and Indo-Pacific waters. ).

Using a new type of lithium-ion battery and a long submersible air independent propulsion (AIP) engine, Japanese submarines can stay in critical waterways of the ocean, as well as outside Chinese and North Korean naval bases and ports, for extended periods of time. can stay for a long time.

The new submarine "Taigei" type, which began construction in 2017, has the world's top level submarine capability as a conventional submarine that does not use nuclear power. Compared to lead-acid batteries, it is possible to charge and discharge more power quickly, and the major point is that the design has been revised to maximize the characteristics of lithium-ion batteries that do not generate hydrogen gas.

From the 4th ship of the "Taigei" type, we have adopted a "new snorkel power generation system" that can quickly charge the storage battery while submerged. This allows submarines to charge more efficiently than ever before.

Maritime Self-Defense Force "Taigei-class 3rd" submarine Jingei (SS-515) holding a launching ceremony at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Kobe Shipyard. October 12, 2022

Japanese submarines can conveniently monitor sea traffic for weeks at other locations of interest. A central point of debate should be whether the MSDF should have more SSKs to cover a wider area. This one is probably more worth the money.

The reason Australia ultimately chose nuclear attack submarines is that, even with the 12 conventionally powered submarines it was originally destined for under the French contract, the Australian Navy will always have two or three more in the Indo-Pacific region. because it was difficult to dispatch

This is because the Australian Navy bases are quite far from the waters where submarines operate. Normally powered submarines use a lot of fuel to move, so even if they reach their destination, they have only a limited amount of time to complete the mission. Nuclear submarines, on the other hand, are capable of long-term missions far from Australia.

Additionally, the Royal Australian Navy is now on its way to becoming the expeditionary navy that supports the US Navy in the region. Nuclear submarines are better suited to fill this role due to their powerful weapons, sensors and unmanned systems. These are assets that so far cannot be delivered from mainland Australia (military assets).

This is not the case with the Maritime Self Defense Force. The Maritime Self-Defense Force is a defensive organization to protect the waters near Japan, not an expeditionary navy that exerts force across regions. The Maritime Self-Defense Force can launch unmanned systems and missiles from mainland Japan, eliminating the need to install them on expensive nuclear submarines.

Let's not forget that submarines are only part of maritime security. A variety of platforms, from unmanned systems to surface ships to space and ground-based systems, all play a role in maritime security.

Nuclear submarines are expensive to develop and build, but they don't add much to the capabilities that Japan's Ground, Navy, and Air Self-Defense Forces already have. Instead, invest in platforms and technologies that are truly innovative and impactful on land, air, sea and subsea.

However, the merits of nuclear submarines are that there is no substitute for the continuous power provided by their nuclear reactors. You can use electricity as much as you want. It can remain submerged for quite a long time without a fuel supply, and the power supply is almost limitless. We can make the most of this energy and develop an autonomous unmanned submersible ( It has the advantage of being able to operate UUV), integrate these and sensors, and be able to execute efficient operations.

Therefore, if Japan considers giving submarines greater strategic value in future operations, it would be prudent to consider the option of nuclear submarines.

In any case, if Japan and Australia jointly operate submarines, there is no doubt that their ability to keep China in check will dramatically increase even if the US forces in the South China Sea become weaker.