Issue No. 269 | The Orbital Index

Issue No. 269 | The Orbital Index

Summary

Here is a summary of the key points from the Orbital Index newsletter, Issue No. 269:

• The Sun is entering an active phase of its 11-year cycle, with recent large X-class solar flares and coronal mass ejections causing a powerful G5 solar storm. This caused visible aurorae and some disruptions to communications and power grids. A Carrington-scale event could have major impacts today.
• NASA's NIAC program selected 6 innovative concepts for additional Phase II development funding, including 
• fluidic telescopes, 
• fission-generated 
• plasma rockets, 
• lunar railways, and more.
• The Otter Pup mission from Starfish Space faced multiple challenges but was able to achieve a cooperative rendezvous with a D-Orbit ION vehicle, coming within 1 km and capturing an image.
• Other news includes 
• an engine assembly milestone for Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket, 
• China's lunar and launch vehicle activity, 
• agreements for launches from Sweden and the Kennedy Space Center, and more.
• The first quarter of 2024 saw 37 U.S. launch attempts (32 from SpaceX), 14 from China, and some from other countries. Starlink may reach positive cash flow this year.
• The Einstein Probe released its first image of the Puppis A supernova remnant from its X-ray telescope.

Solar Storm

The recent solar storm was caused by a series of powerful solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun. The Sun is currently entering the most active phase of its 11-year cycle, leading to increased solar activity.

The largest flare was an X5.8 class flare, and the resulting CMEs were directed towards Earth. This led to a G5 solar storm last weekend, which is the highest level on NOAA's space weather scales.

An X5.8 class flare is a classification of a solar flare based on its intensity in the X-ray spectrum. Solar flares are sudden, intense bursts of radiation from the Sun's surface, often associated with sunspots and magnetic field lines.

The classification system for solar flares uses letters (A, B, C, M, and X) to indicate the order of magnitude of the flare's peak flux in the 1-8 Angstrom wavelength range of X-rays, as measured by the GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) spacecraft.

• - A-class: < 10^-7 W/m^2
• - B-class: 10^-7 to 10^-6 W/m^2
• - C-class: 10^-6 to 10^-5 W/m^2
• - M-class: 10^-5 to 10^-4 W/m^2
• - X-class: > 10^-4 W/m^2

The number following the letter indicates the multiplicative factor. For example, an X5.8 flare has a peak flux of 5.8 × 10^-4 W/m^2.

X-class flares are the most intense, with X10 or higher considered exceptionally strong. An X5.8 flare is a powerful event that can cause significant geomagnetic disturbances on Earth, especially if accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) directed towards our planet.

Such powerful flares can lead to radio blackouts, GPS disruptions, and, in extreme cases, damage to satellites and electrical infrastructure on Earth. The X5.8 flare mentioned in the article was one of the factors contributing to the strong G5 solar storm experienced last weekend.

The solar storm caused aurorae that were visible from middle latitudes, as far south as Puerto Rico in the US and throughout Europe. This event was one of the most powerful solar storms since the 2003 Halloween solar storms, which damaged or interrupted services from multiple spacecraft and saturated measurement instruments.

However, the Carrington Event in 1859 remains the most significant geomagnetic event in recorded history. It was caused by an estimated X45+ class flare and its CME arrived at Earth in just 17.6 hours, causing global aurorae and even allowing telegraph operators to send messages through lines powered solely by the induced current.

A Carrington-scale event today could have severe consequences, including potential damage to electrical grids, disruption of RF-based communications and the internet backbone, and impacts on critical satellite systems like GNSS constellations. While the US could prepare its grid for such an event at a relatively low cost, little action has been taken so far.

The recent solar storm did cause some interruptions to RTK position systems used in industrial-scale agriculture and led to power grid fluctuations around the world, highlighting the potential impact of these events on modern technology and infrastructure.

NIAC Innovative Concepts

NASA's Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) program recently selected six concept studies for additional Phase II development funding, each receiving up to $600,000. These concepts, which were previously funded under Phase I, cover a wide range of innovative ideas for future space exploration and technology. The six selected concepts, along with their respective principal investigators (PIs) and institutions, are:

1. FLUTE (Fluidic Telescope): This concept aims to create telescopes with massive liquid primary mirrors in space by shaping ionic liquids. The idea is inspired by the science fiction novel "Dune."
   - PI: Dr. Edward Balaban
   - Institution: NASA's Ames Research Center

2. Pulsed Plasma Rocket: This concept proposes using fission-generated packets of plasma to generate up to 100,000 N of thrust with an Isp (specific impulse) of 5,000s. If successful, this could greatly enhance propulsion capabilities for spacecraft.
   - PI: Dr. Troy Howe
   - Institution: Howe Industries in Scottsdale, Arizona

3. GO-LoW (Gravitational-wave Observations at Low frequencies With a megaconstellation): A proposed megaconstellation of autonomous, low-frequency radio telescopes to be placed at an Earth-Sun Lagrange point. The telescopes would study exoplanets' magnetospheres and the cosmic dark ages at frequencies that cannot be observed from Earth due to the ionosphere.
   - PI: Dr. Mary Knapp
   - Institution: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

4. Radioisotope Thermoradiative Power Generator: A concept for power generators designed for deep space missions, with a mass-specific power 4-5 times that of NASA's current Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG).
   - PI: Dr. Erik Timpson
   - Institution: Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT)

5. Quantum Dot Solar Sail Imager: A proposal to place quantum dot sensors on solar sails, allowing the sail to function as an imager for missions to the outer planets.
   - PI: Dr. Ratnakumar Bugga
   - Institution: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

6. FLOAT (Flexible Levitation on a Track): A concept for a lunar railway system that uses diamagnetic levitation and has no moving parts, designed for payload transport on the Moon.
   - PI: Dr. Ron Polidan
   - Institution: NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)

These PIs and their respective institutions will be responsible for leading the development and refinement of their concepts during the two-year Phase II funding period. If successful, they may have the opportunity to apply for Phase III funding, which provides up to $2 million for additional maturation of the technology.

Otter Pup Mission

The Otter Pup mission was an ambitious project by Starfish Space that aimed to demonstrate rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking (RPOD) capabilities. However, the mission faced several challenges and had to adapt its objectives throughout its duration.

Initially, Otter Pup was launched as a payload on Transporter 8 and was supposed to work with an orbital transfer vehicle (OTV) from Launcher. However, an emergency deployment from the OTV was necessary, which imparted a tumble of 330 degrees/second on the spacecraft, far exceeding the designed tolerance of its attitude control system.

The Starfish team managed to save the spacecraft by pulsing its magnetorquers against Earth's magnetic field to detumble the craft. As a result, the original RPOD plans with the Launcher OTV were abandoned, and the mission objectives were updated.

Soon after the detumbling operation, Otter Pup's electric propulsion system failed, leaving the spacecraft with only one remaining objective: in-space rendezvous with another spacecraft. Due to the lack of propulsion, Otter Pup needed a partner vehicle with available delta-v that could cooperatively change its orbital parameters.

D-Orbit, an Italian orbital logistics company, provided one of their ION orbital delivery vehicles (SVC006, originally launched with Transporter 5) to serve as the other half of the rendezvous. Starfish Space orchestrated the rendezvous with help from space situational awareness company LeoLabs, while D-Orbit executed the maneuver with SVC006.

The ION vehicle successfully approached within 1 km of Otter Pup through multiple orbital flybys, and Otter Pup managed to capture an image of the ION vehicle, achieving a meaningful portion of its original mission objectives despite the challenges faced.

Starfish Space plans to launch their next Otter Pup mission in 2025. The company also recently won a $37M contract from the Department of Defense to improve on-orbit maneuverability and enable dynamic space operations, docking, and maneuvering of DoD assets by 2026.

Issue No. 269

The Orbital Index

orbitalindex.com

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¶Our star throws its decadal tantrum. Last week, as Sol continues to edge into the most active phase of its 11-year cycle, multiple massive X-class solar flares (the largest an X5.8 flare) erupted from associated active sunspots, along with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) directed towards Earth. This sustained activity caused a G5 solar storm last weekend (NOAA’s space weather scales for reference), leading to aurorae visible from middle latitudes as far south as Puerto Rico in the US and all over Europe. This was one of the most powerful solar storms since an estimated X28-45 flare in 2003 contributed to the 2003 Halloween solar storms that damaged or interrupted services from multiple spacecraft, saturated measurement instruments, and made ISS astronauts shelter in the more shielded Russian segment. The 2003 event was the worst solar storm since modern solar monitoring, but the Carrington Event in 1859, as the most significant geomagnetic event in measurable history, puts it to shame. The Carrington Event came from a retrospectively-estimated X45+ class flare with its CME directed squarely at Earth and was preceded by another large CME that likely cleared ambient solar wind plasma, allowing the Carrington CME to arrive at Earth just 17.6 hours after the event (most CMEs take several days to arrive at Earth). This caused globally viewable aurorae, made telegraph pylons arc and spark, and even allowed operators to send messages through lines that were solely powered by the induced current. The impact of high-energy solar events is often under-appreciated, but can particularly negatively affect space systems and the electrical grid—a Carrington-scale event today could trigger a full grid blackout destroying hard-to-replace high-voltage transformers, significantly disrupt RF-based communications, impact the internet backbone, and knock out critical satellite systems like GNSS constellations. (We could prepare our grid in the US for single-digit-billions of dollars, but little seems to be happening.) Last weekend’s event did cause interruptions to RTK position systems used by some industrial-scale agriculture equipment and caused power grid fluctuations around the world. Carrington-scale events happen every ~500 years and are far more likely than a large meteorite impact, but society is currently largely underprepared for the next one. Related: Based on Carbon-14 dating of tree rings (paper), it’s likely that at least nine super solar storms, some an order of magnitude larger than Carrington, known as Miyake Events, have occurred over the last 15,000 years, the last ones in 993 and 774.

Several of the recent solar X-class flares can be seen at the top right of this extreme ultraviolet spectrum video of our star captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory. Credit: NASA.

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¶NASA NIAC goes Phase II. NASA’s Innovative Advanced Concepts program, known for funding some exciting and weird shit (c.f Issues 160, 205, 219, 253, etc…), has selected six prior NIAC concept studies for additional development. Phase II grants are only up to $600,000 in funding, though, so temper your expectations. NIAC Phase II awards are also a potential gateway to the somewhat more impactful $2 million Phase III awards. The winners were:

• FLUTE, a concept to create fluidic telescopes with massive liquid primary mirrors in space by shaping ionic liquids—swiped wholeheartedly from Dune. (NASA’s Ames Research Center)
• A pulsed plasma rocket that would use “fission-generated packets of plasma” to generate up to 100,000 N of thrust with an Isp of 5,000s… sounds fantastic! (Howe Industries in Scottsdale, Arizona)
• GO-LoW, a megaconstellation of interferometric, autonomous, low-frequency radio telescopes at an Earth-Sun Lagrange point to study exoplanets’ magnetospheres and the cosmic dark ages at frequencies (100 kHz and 15 MHz) that we cannot observe from Earth due to the ionosphere. (MIT)
• A concept for radioisotope thermoradiative power generators for deep space missions with a mass-specific power 4-5x that of NASA’s MMRTG. (RIT)
• Quantum dot sensors on solar sails, allow the sail to also function as an imager for missions to the outer planets. (Goddard Space Flight Center)
• FLOAT, a diamagnetically levitating lunar railway system with no moving parts for payload transport on the Moon. (JPL)

FLOAT’s unpowered vehicles diamagnetically levitate over a film track composed of a graphite layer (for diamagnetic levitation), a flex-circuit layer (to electromagnetically push vehicles along), and an optional thin-film solar panel (for power). Levitation could remove the risk of wear from lunar dust abrasion.

¶Otter Pup signs off. Last week, Otter Pup, the ambitious and high-drama rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking (RPOD) mission from Starfish Space, concluded its mission on a high note. The drama began with an emergency deployment from its Launcher orbital transfer vehicle (OTV) after catching a ride to orbit last year on Transporter 8 (c.f. Issue 234). That emergency deployment imparted a tumble of 330 degrees/second, much more than the few degrees/second that its attitude control system was designed to handle. The Starfish team was able to save the spacecraft by pulsing its magnetorquers opportunistically against the magnetic field of the Earth to detumble the craft. Original plans to meet RPOD goals by working with the Launcher OTV were scrapped and objectives were updated, only to have Otter Pup’s electric propulsion fail soon after the detumbling operation. This left the mission with one remaining objective: in-space rendezvous with another spacecraft. But without propulsion, that would have to be a very specific partner that had delta-v and availability to cooperatively change their orbital parameters. D-Orbit, an Italian orbital logistics company that supplies hosted payload and space tug services, provided one of their existing twelve ION orbital delivery vehicles as the other half of the rendezvous. Starfish orchestrated the rendezvous, with help from space situational awareness company LeoLabs, while D-Orbit executed the maneuver with their ION SVC006 craft, originally launched with Transporter 5. SVC006 approached to within 1 km of Otter Pup over the course of multiple orbital flybys. The latter was able to point and capture an image of the ION vehicle (below), salvaging a meaningful part of the original mission. Starfish plans to launch their next Otter Pup in 2025. (Related: Starfish just won a $37M contract from the DOD “to improve maneuverability on-orbit and enable dynamic space operations, docking, and maneuvering of Department of Defense assets on-orbit by 2026.”)

Otter Pup’s view of the D-Orbit ION SVC006 vehicle at 1 km. Credit: Starfish Space

¶News in brief. Xona Space Systems, designer of a LEO alternative to GPS, raised a $19M Series A ● Rocket Lab completed the first full assembly of their 3-D printed reusable Archimedes engine for their medium-lift Neutron rocket, whose debut has been pushed to 2025 ● Chang’e-6 entered an elliptical lunar orbit that will gradually circularize ahead of a landing attempt in early June ● Serbia became the 11th country to join the China-led ILRS Moon base project ● China also launched their first Long March 6C, the latest of Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight (SAST)’s upgraded vehicles that use kerosene and liquid oxygen instead of toxic hypergolic propellant ● China also also launched their first MEO broadband satellite ● South Korea’s Perigee Aerospace signed an agreement to launch their Blue Whale 1 rocket at Sweden’s Esrange Space Center, becoming the site’s first orbital launch customer ● The FAA began a new environmental review of Starship launches from the Kennedy Space Center due to design changes that have occurred since their first review in 2019 ● NASA and JAXA plan to operate XRISM as is for the next eighteen months before trying to fix an issue with an aperture that failed to open on the Resolve imaging instrument (the instrument is still able to conduct ‘very good science’ despite the closed beryllium door attenuating some lower energy X-rays) ● Gunning ahead, SpaceX conducted a static fire test of the upper stage for their Flight-5 Starship launch, with the Flight-4 launch set for as early as the end of this month, but is more likely to happen in June.

The 50 m tall upper stage for Starship Flight-5 performs a static fire with all six of the Raptor engines ignited while anchored to a testing ground mount. Credit: SpaceX

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¶Etc.

• Seattle Space Week is June 8-13, 2024, check it out if you’re in the area!
• The NSF halted CMB-S4, a project that would place telescopes in Chile and Antarctica to study cosmic microwave background, due to aging infrastructure at the South Pole.
• A Cargo Dragon returned Redwire’s bioprinted cardiac tissue from the ISS, a first for in-space manufacturing. The hope is that tissue bioprinted in microgravity will maintain its shape better and offer a path to printing organs. However, it remains to be seen if this is useful and scalable.
• Relatedly, the same return vehicle brought home 8 km of ZBLAN optical fiber which had been pulled on the ISS by startup Flawless Photonics. ZBLAN fiber is more transparent than silica, is useful for industrial and medical lasers, and could potentially allow undersea communications cables to have far fewer expensive and power hungry repeaters. ZBLAN is the oft-mentioned leading candidate for a viable orbital manufacturing market, and while this is not the first ZBLAN manufactured on the ISS, it is the first time production of “commercial lengths” has been demonstrated (…and sold!).
• A summary of Q1 2024 launch attempts. US: 37 (32 of which were SpaceX, up 11 from Q1 2023, 4 Rocket Lab, 3 of which were from NZ, 1 ULA), China: 14, Russia: 5, Japan: 3, India: 2, Iran: 2, Europe: 0. Come on Ariane 6! (And Isar, RFA, Skyrora, Orbex, PLD Space, Avio, MaiaSpace, Latitude, HyImpulse, HyPrSpace, …et al.)
• China has been considering applications by NASA-funded researchers to gain access to Chang’e 5 lunar samples. This is one of the exceptionally few programs where the agencies interact, and a positive development for the science community.
• A lot of those launches went to Starlink, which looks like it has 2.7m current global subscribers and could be cash flow positive this year with $6.6B in revenue (webinar).
• NASA confirms “independent review” of Orion heat shield issue.
• Proton Earth, Electron Moon 💥

Puppis A, yet another supernova remnant, about 4,000 years old, is the Einstein Probe’s first released image. The image below comes from Einstein Probe’s Follow-up X-ray Telescope (FXT) imager. The Einstein Probe (c.f. Issue 252) is a collaboration between the Chinese Academy of Sciences, ESA, and the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Germany.