GE, Rolls Royce, Pratt & Whitney: Who Rules the Engine Market? - YouTube

GE, Rolls Royce, Pratt & Whitney: Who Rules the Engine Market? - YouTube

Power Struggle at Altitude: The Commercial Aircraft Engine Market in 2026

Special Analysis

February 18, 2026

With record airline demand outpacing constrained airframe production, and propulsion technology entering its most competitive era in decades, the Big Three engine makers face simultaneous crises of supply, reliability, and the race to define the next generation of narrowbody propulsion.

 

BLUF — Bottom Line Up Front

The global commercial aircraft engine market — valued at roughly $61–81 billion in 2024 depending on scope — is experiencing its most structurally disruptive period since the post-9/11 retrenchment. GE Aerospace and its CFM joint venture with Safran dominate with approximately 55% of the overall market and claim to power three in four commercial flights worldwide. Pratt & Whitney's Geared Turbofan (GTF) program has reshaped narrowbody propulsion efficiency while simultaneously generating an ongoing crisis — more than 835 aircraft sat grounded at end-October 2025 due to contaminated powder metal in engine disks, a remediation now estimated to cost RTX $6–7 billion through at least 2026. Rolls-Royce, long absent from the narrowbody market, is aggressively positioning its UltraFan and UltraFan 30 technologies for a return to single-aisle competition in the 2030s. Meanwhile, both Boeing and Airbus carry backlogs representing 11+ years of production while failing to meet current-year delivery targets, anchoring insatiable airline demand against an immovable supply chain. The next-generation engine competition — CFM's open-fan RISE program, P&W's next-generation GTF, and Rolls-Royce's UltraFan 30 — will determine which OEMs define the successor to today's narrowbody fleets, the largest commercial aviation prize available.

 

Market Structure: The Big Three — And the Joint Ventures That Complicate the Count

Four corporate entities — GE Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney (a division of RTX Corporation), Rolls-Royce, and Safran — collectively hold approximately 97% of the commercial aero-engine market. Yet the picture is more complex than any simple ranking reveals. CFM International, the 50-50 joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran Aircraft Engines, is the single largest engine supplier by volume, commanding roughly 39% of the global market and more than 60% of the narrowbody segment alone. When CFM's output is consolidated with GE Aerospace's own widebody programs, the GE/Safran axis claims roughly 55% of all commercial engines — a dominant position unmatched since the jet age began.

Pratt & Whitney ranks second by volume with a market share of approximately 26–35% depending on the measurement year, driven almost entirely by its PW1000G Geared Turbofan (GTF) family. The company boasts over 12,000 orders for the GTF across 90-plus operators worldwide and generated revenues exceeding $28 billion in 2024, returning to profitability after a full-year loss in 2023 driven by the powder-metal contamination crisis detailed below. Rolls-Royce sits third with roughly 18% of the overall market, but controls approximately one-third of the global widebody fleet and holds 46% of the widebody order backlog — numbers that reflect its strategic withdrawal from narrowbody competition in 2012 when it sold its stake in International Aero Engines (IAE).

The global commercial aircraft engine market was valued at approximately $60.77 billion in 2024 by Mordor Intelligence, with turbofan engines constituting over 99% of commercial sales. Market research firm Global Market Insights placed the total broader aviation engine market — including aftermarket and overhaul — at over $81 billion in 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9%, projected to exceed $184 billion by 2034. The aftermarket segment — long-term service agreements, spare parts, and MRO — has become the critical battleground for profitability; GE Aerospace raised its 2025 profit forecast specifically citing aftermarket strength.

 

Demand Signal: Airlines Flying Full, Fleets Aging, Backlogs Swelling

The demand environment for new engines and new aircraft has never been stronger in aggregate, even if the structural bottlenecks preventing supply from meeting that demand have never been more entrenched. IATA's 2025 full-year data, released in February 2026, showed global revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) rose 5.3% year-over-year, with the overall passenger load factor hitting a record 83.6%. Airlines filled seats at historically unprecedented rates — a direct consequence of aircraft delivery delays forcing carriers to squeeze more utilization out of existing fleets rather than adding new capacity.

IATA projects global airline net profits will reach a record $41 billion in 2026, up from $39.5 billion in 2025, on revenues approaching $1.053 trillion — the first time the industry has crossed the trillion-dollar threshold. Passenger numbers in 2026 are projected to reach 5.2 billion, while load factors are expected to hit yet another record of 83.8%. Despite these headline numbers, net margins remain razor-thin at 3.9%, well below the industry's weighted average cost of capital of 8.2%. IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted bluntly that the aircraft order backlog has exceeded 17,000 planes — equivalent to roughly 60% of the active global fleet — and that supply chain failures cost airlines more than $11 billion in 2025 alone.

The implication for engine makers is straightforward: virtually every new aircraft delivered triggers new engine revenue and initiates a multi-decade aftermarket relationship. The constraint is not demand — it is the ability of the propulsion and airframe supply chains to convert backlog into delivery.

 

Airframe OEM Status: Delivery Shortfalls Cascade Into Engine Programs

The two dominant commercial airframe manufacturers — Airbus and Boeing — entered 2026 with combined backlogs representing more than a decade of production at current rates, yet neither is delivering at a pace sufficient to satisfy the market.

Airbus held a backlog of 8,695 aircraft as of end-November 2025, with approximately 89% concentrated in A220 and A320neo family narrowbodies. The company delivered 657 aircraft through November 2025 and revised its full-year 2025 target down from 820 to approximately 790 units after persistent shortages of Buyer Furnished Equipment and engines forced the revision. A350 production averaged only 4.5 aircraft per month through most of 2025 against a target of six — a shortfall compounded by Spirit AeroSystems supply chain disruptions. The A220 program has been particularly troubled; roughly one-quarter of the global A220 fleet has been parked due to PW1500G GTF recall requirements, undermining order confidence and forcing Airbus to cut its 2026 production rate target for the type from 14 to 12 aircraft per month.

Boeing's recovery has been more dramatic in percentage terms but from a far lower base. After a deeply troubled 2024 marked by a machinist strike and quality control crises, Boeing deliveries rose approximately 69% in 2025. The average time from first flight to customer delivery fell to 37 days from 47 in 2024, and the long-term backlog of aircraft delayed more than a year shrank to just 27 units. The FAA approved a rate increase for the 737 MAX from 38 to 42 aircraft per month, with aspirations to reach 50 per month by 2026. Boeing's own backlog stood at 6,609 aircraft at end-November 2025 — again representing approximately 11.5 years of production. The 777X program, which uses GE's GE9X engine, remains in pre-certification; first delivery to launch customer Lufthansa has now slipped from 2026 to 2027 due to ongoing FAA certification delays. GE has separately disclosed a durability issue with the GE9X for the 777-9, though both GE and Boeing maintain the problem will not affect the 2027 delivery target.

Brazilian manufacturer Embraer improved its E-Jet E2 delivery count to 66 aircraft in 2025 from 55 in 2024, though it also faces GTF-related headwinds through the PW1900G variant. COMAC, China's state-backed narrowbody manufacturer, delivered only 29 C919s in 2025, down from 40 in 2024, struggling to convert a large domestic backlog into active deliveries. The C919 uses CFM LEAP-1C engines under an existing contract; Chinese authorities are simultaneously investing heavily in the Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) to develop indigenous propulsion for future generations, a program that remains years from commercial viability.

 

The GTF Crisis: Pratt & Whitney's Powder Metal Wound

The most significant single disruption in commercial propulsion in the last decade is the ongoing recall of Pratt & Whitney's PW1000G Geared Turbofan family. RTX disclosed in July 2023 that a rare condition in the powder metal material used to manufacture certain high-pressure turbine and compressor disks had been introduced during production of engines built between October 2015 and September 2021. The contaminated metal can cause premature microstructural cracks that could ultimately lead to an uncontained disk failure — one of the most consequential failure modes in commercial aviation.

The remediation has proved far more protracted than initially projected. Turnaround times at MRO facilities stretched to 250–300 days rather than the originally estimated 60 days, driven by shop capacity limitations, parts shortages, and the specialized inspection tooling required. What began as an estimated 600–700 engines requiring accelerated shop visits expanded to nearly 3,000 affected engines across the PW1100G (A320neo family), PW1500G (A220), and PW1900G (Embraer E2) variants.

By end-October 2025, according to fleet data provider Cirium, 835 jets powered by GTF engines were in storage — a storage rate of approximately 33% of the total GTF-powered fleet. By comparison, only 155 aircraft powered by CFM's competing LEAP turbofans were stored at the same time, representing just 3.5% of that fleet. The competitive damage to Pratt & Whitney's brand has been significant, even as airlines continue ordering GTFs in large numbers — P&W recorded more than 1,100 engine orders in the first half of 2025 alone.

RTX's total financial exposure from the recall is estimated at $6–7 billion for RTX and its GTF risk-sharing partners combined. The company took a $3 billion charge in September 2023 and an additional $5.4 billion hit across related periods. An FAA airworthiness directive published in mid-2025 expanded the scope of mandatory inspections, and a parallel issue affecting powder metal in PW2000 engines used on the Boeing 757 was also identified, though without the operational grounding implications of the GTF situation.

RTX's remediation strategy centers on two parallel tracks: expanding MRO shop throughput — maintenance capacity jumped 35% year-on-year in early 2025 — and introducing the GTF Hot Section Plus (HS+) retrofit package, which incorporates approximately 35 redesigned components and is intended to double time-on-wing for engines receiving the upgrade. The normalization of AOG (aircraft-on-ground) figures is not expected until late 2026 at the earliest for most variants, and not until 2028 for some E-Jet E2 operators.

The FAA separately expanded mandatory inspections of CFM LEAP-1A high-pressure turbine blades to engines operating in South Asia in 2025, following earlier concerns about dust-related blade cracking in Middle East operations. CFM has been working through a series of durability fixes, including deploying more than 1,450 improved HP turbine blades for the LEAP-1A and installing a reverse-bleed system on 50% of the fleet. Certification of corresponding fixes for the LEAP-1B is expected in the first half of 2026.

 

Technology Race: Geared Turbofan, Open Fan, and the Battle for the Next Single-Aisle

While the GTF crisis dominates near-term headlines, the propulsion industry's strategic horizon is defined by the race to power what will almost certainly be the most commercially lucrative single aircraft program since the original A320: the successor to the A320neo/737 MAX generation, broadly called the Next Generation Single Aisle (NGSA). Both Airbus and Boeing have signaled entry-into-service targets in the latter half of the 2030s, with Airbus moving somewhat faster in its public planning. The engine decision for the NGSA will likely be made before the end of this decade, and the stakes for each propulsion OEM are enormous.

CFM RISE: Open Fan Architecture

CFM International's Revolutionary Innovation for Sustainable Engines (RISE) program represents the most radical departure from current turbofan architecture under serious development. Unveiled in 2021 and now involving more than 2,000 CFM engineers globally, RISE centers on an Open Fan (unducted) architecture that would take the bypass ratio from the current LEAP's approximately 11:1 to 60:1 — a figure that GE Aerospace Senior VP and Chief Technology Officer Mohamed Ali described as the fundamental 'fuel burn opportunity' at a 2025 Airbus technology summit.

The physics are compelling: conventional turbofan ducts grow so large in pursuit of higher bypass ratios that the aerodynamic drag of the duct eventually cancels the efficiency gain from a larger fan. The Open Fan eliminates the duct entirely, enabling a single-stage rotor followed by non-rotating stator vanes, both with variable pitch control. CFM projects a 20% reduction in fuel consumption and carbon emissions compared with the current LEAP-1A — roughly double the improvement the LEAP achieved over the CFM56 it replaced.

CFM has completed more than 350 component and module tests across multiple demonstrators, including more than 200 hours of wind tunnel testing at France's ONERA aerospace research center using a 1:5 scale model. GE Aerospace completed a high-speed low-pressure turbine mating test in June 2023 and completed endurance tests on HP turbine airfoil technologies in 2024, simulating more than 3,000 takeoff and climb cycles. A full-scale ground demonstrator paired with an Open Fan set and a GE Passport gas generator is in development, with flight testing aboard an Airbus A380 testbed planned before the end of the decade.

The competitive landscape for the NGSA is, however, more complicated than CFM's technical trajectory might suggest. Safran CEO Olivier Andries confirmed in February 2026 that CFM is concurrently developing a conventional 'Advanced Ducted-Large' engine architecture as a contingency — described as getting 'prepared for any scenario.' The contingency reflects uncertainty about Boeing's appetite for open-fan integration risk: Boeing is understood to be significantly more cautious about the Open Fan's novel certification and maintenance challenges than Airbus, and the 737's architecture could make integration especially complex. CFM's target EIS for RISE-derived engines is the second half of the 2030s. CFM delivered 1,802 LEAP engines in 2025, an 18% increase over 2024, and projects a further 15% increase in 2026 to approximately 2,072 units — suggesting the near-term emphasis remains firmly on LEAP production ramp.

Pratt & Whitney: Next-Generation GTF

Pratt & Whitney is advancing a next-generation version of its Geared Turbofan architecture for NGSA competition, building on the PW1000G's proven planetary gearbox concept — which allows the fan to operate at approximately 3,000 RPM while the low-pressure turbine runs at 10,000 RPM. The company is partnered with NASA on the Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core (HyTEC) project under NASA's Sustainable Flight National Partnership, developing advanced combustors for small-core engines compatible with sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and demonstrating fuel/air mixer designs that optimize efficiency while minimizing NOx and noise emissions. P&W has also been selected for work on hybrid-electric systems for 30–50 seat aircraft, with entry into service anticipated around 2030.

With over 12,000 GTF orders already placed and a demonstrated — if troubled — track record in service, P&W enters the NGSA competition with the largest installed base of any next-generation narrowbody engine. The key question is whether the powder-metal crisis has durably damaged airline confidence in P&W's manufacturing quality control, or whether the GTF Advantage upgrade package and HS+ retrofit restore the program's reputation sufficiently to compete for the NGSA.

Rolls-Royce UltraFan: The Comeback Bid

Rolls-Royce has been absent from the narrowbody engine market since selling its IAE stake in 2012. Its return strategy is built around the UltraFan, an entirely new geared turbofan architecture — the company's first new architecture in 54 years — that completed its first demonstrator ground runs in May 2023 and reached maximum power in November 2023. The widebody-scale UltraFan 80 (producing thrust of approximately 85,000 lb) achieved a 10% efficiency improvement over the Trent XWB, itself already the most efficient large aero engine in commercial service. A second build of the UltraFan 80 is undergoing additional performance mapping, having completed its initial 70-hour test campaign.

More strategically significant is the UltraFan 30, a scaled-down narrowbody variant targeting approximately 30,000 lb of thrust and a fan diameter approaching 90 inches — roughly 10 inches more than the current PW1100G. The UltraFan 30 achieved preliminary design maturity by mid-2025 and is targeted for ground test by 2028, funded in part by the EU Clean Aviation UNIFIED program, which selected a Rolls-Royce-led consortium for a share of approximately €378 million in EU support across 12 projects. Flight tests of a narrowbody demonstrator are projected for the end of the decade, with the program pursuing Technology Readiness Level 5 by approximately 2029–2030.

Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic confirmed in June 2025 at the Farnborough International Air Show that the company is in active partnership discussions with 'multiple parties' for the NGSA narrowbody push, acknowledging that industrializing the UltraFan 30 to the production volumes required for narrowbody competition — potentially thousands of engines per year — would be 'a massive challenge' without partners. The UltraFan architecture is designed to be 100% SAF-compatible from day one and scalable across a thrust range from approximately 25,000 to 110,000 lb, covering both narrowbody and widebody applications. The company's Trent XWB remains the exclusive powerplant for the Airbus A350, providing a stable widebody revenue base from which the NGSA bid can be pursued.

 

Sustainability, SAF, and the Regulatory Horizon

The transition to sustainable aviation fuels is simultaneously a commercial opportunity and a regulatory imperative for all propulsion OEMs. All major engine manufacturers have certified their production engines for 50% SAF blends, and the industry target — embedded in EU regulations — is full 100% SAF approval by 2030. IATA estimates SAF production doubled to approximately 2 million tonnes in 2025, yet that volume covers barely 0.7–0.8% of global airline fuel demand. IATA's Walsh has identified SAF availability — not price — as the primary obstacle to meeting emissions targets. Incremental airline spending on SAF is projected at $4.5 billion in 2026 for just 2.4 million tonnes.

The EU's CORSIA carbon offsetting program is projected to cost airlines $1.7 billion in 2026, with total incremental compliance and SAF costs reaching $4.5 billion — a figure that will only grow as mandates tighten. Engine makers are positioning their next-generation programs to be hydrogen-compatible in addition to SAF-compatible, though hydrogen's aviation timeline remains far beyond any currently committed program. Rolls-Royce has tested the UltraFan demonstrator on 100% SAF and is pursuing hydrogen combustion research with easyJet and NASA. CFM's RISE program is similarly designed for SAF and hybrid-electric compatibility from inception.

 

Competitive Dynamics and Market Outlook

The near-term competitive dynamic in commercial propulsion is, in essence, a two-horse race between CFM and Pratt & Whitney for narrowbody dominance, with Rolls-Royce competing exclusively in widebodies while building toward a potential narrowbody return. GE Aerospace's installed base of approximately 45,000 engines — including CFM programs — and its claim of powering three of every four commercial flights represent a structural advantage that will persist for decades regardless of NGSA outcomes. The aftermarket revenue stream from that installed base, growing in direct proportion to every engine delivered, is the financial foundation from which GE funds its next-generation development.

For Pratt & Whitney, the priority in 2026 remains operational: normalize the GTF grounding situation, rebuild airline confidence, and protect its substantial order book while advancing the next-generation GTF architecture. The company returned to profitability in 2024 and recorded strong order intake in 2025, suggesting that airlines — pressed for new aircraft by constrained supply — are not fundamentally changing their propulsion preferences based on the powder-metal crisis alone. But the competitive gap in fleet availability between GTF-powered and LEAP-powered A320neo variants, documented in real time by Cirium fleet data, has created a measurable reputational liability.

The NGSA engine decision — still years away — will be the most consequential commercial propulsion award since the CFM56 was selected for the original 737 Classic in the 1970s. The candidate technologies on offer are more radically differentiated from current engines than at any competitive transition in the jet age: an Open Fan with bypass ratios of 60:1, a next-generation geared turbofan building on a proven but troubled architecture, and a late-entry UltraFan 30 that must first prove industrial credibility. The choice will be driven as much by airframe integration risk, certification timelines, and production scalability as by thermodynamic efficiency — and the winner or winners will define commercial aviation propulsion through the 2060s.

The broader structural truth is this: with global airline backlogs exceeding 17,000 aircraft, IATA projecting record profits and record load factors, and both Airbus and Boeing unable to meet delivery targets despite sustained effort, the propulsion industry faces an extraordinary multi-decade demand signal. The question is not whether engines will be needed — they will be needed in historically unprecedented numbers — but which organizations will be positioned, technically and industrially, to supply them.

 

VERIFIED SOURCES AND FORMAL CITATIONS

All sources verified as of February 2026. URLs active at time of research.

 

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