Sunday, September 21, 2025

Skunk Works Introduces Vectis Stealth CCA

Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works Unveils Vectis CCA, Joining Intensifying Unmanned Fighter Competition

Company positions high-survivability drone as NGAD-compatible platform for future air dominance

Lockheed Martin's secretive Skunk Works division has officially unveiled Vectis, a self-funded Group 5 Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) designed to operate alongside fifth- and sixth-generation crewed fighters in contested airspace. The announcement, made Sept. 21 ahead of the Air, Space & Cyber Conference, marks the aerospace giant's formal entry into the rapidly evolving unmanned fighter market as the Pentagon accelerates development of autonomous combat platforms.

Executive Decision-Making and Strategic Direction

The Vectis development represents a strategic decision by Lockheed Martin's senior leadership to maintain the company's central role in U.S. combat aviation. The initiative was driven by key executives including CEO James Taiclet, who has emphasized digital transformation and advanced technologies since taking the helm in 2020. Greg Ulmer, president of Aeronautics and formerly head of the F-35 program, oversees the $25 billion Aeronautics division that includes Skunk Works.

The decision to proceed with Vectis involved recently appointed Skunk Works president OJ Sanchez, who took over from John Clark in January 2025. Clark, who led Skunk Works for three years during the crucial NGAD competition period, has moved to senior vice president for Technology and Strategic Innovation, reporting directly to CEO Taiclet. This executive reshuffling positions Lockheed Martin to coordinate autonomous systems development across all business areas while Sanchez, a former Air Force F-22 pilot with over 30 years of combined military and industry experience, focuses Skunk Works on next-generation capabilities.

Technical Specifications and Competitive Positioning

Sanchez described Vectis as larger than Lockheed's Common Multi-Mission Truck cruise missile but smaller than an F-16 fighter, featuring a tailless lambda wing configuration. The platform emphasizes multi-mission flexibility spanning precision strike, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) targeting, electronic warfare, and both offensive and defensive counter-air operations. Company operational analysis indicates supersonic capability is not necessary for the CCA mission set, though the platform must keep pace with fifth-generation fighters.

The design incorporates work from Skunk Works' sixth-generation fighter prototype and technologies from the RQ-170 stealth UAS, positioning Vectis to deliver what Lockheed Martin calls "best in CCA class survivability." This approach contrasts with competitors' emphasis on affordability and some degree of attritable operation, reflecting different philosophical approaches to the unmanned combat aviation challenge.

Current CCA Program Status and Government Decision Authority

The CCA program's future direction will be determined by a multi-layered acquisition hierarchy within the Department of Defense. The Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (SAF/AQ) serves as the Service Acquisition Executive, with ultimate decision authority for ACAT 1C programs. This position oversees $40 billion annual investments that include major programs across multiple Program Executive Officers (PEOs).

The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (AFLCMC), led by a Lieutenant General, manages weapon systems from inception to retirement and was recently reorganized to split the Fighters and Bombers Directorate into separate advanced aircraft and bomber directorates. Collaborative combat aircraft development involves the PEO for fighter aircraft, Air Force Research Laboratory commanders, Air Combat Command, Air Force Test Center, and USAF deputy chief of staff for plans and programs.

The first generation of Air Force CCAs is reaching critical milestones, with General Atomics' YFQ-42A beginning flight testing in August 2025 and Anduril's YFQ-44A Fury preparing for first flight. Both platforms received the historic "FQ" designation, marking them as the first unmanned aircraft classified as autonomous fighters. The Air Force plans to order 100 CCAs over the next five years as part of Increment 1, using a "planning assumption" of 1,000 total CCAs for force structure analysis.

Comparative Analysis of CCA Competitors

The current CCA competition presents distinctly different approaches to unmanned combat aviation. General Atomics' YFQ-42A emphasizes endurance over speed and maneuverability, leveraging the company's Gambit series concept. Gambit 1 is described as "a nimble sensing platform optimized for long endurance" capable of leading strike packages. General Atomics, building more than 100 aircraft annually, represents established defense industry experience with proven track records in unmanned systems.

Anduril's YFQ-44A Fury leverages the company's Lattice software and features an open, modular system designed to accelerate prototyping to production timelines. This Silicon Valley startup approach, backed by the acquisition of Blue Force Technologies, represents newer thinking versus traditional defense industrial base methodologies.

Boeing's MQ-28 Ghost Bat, while not selected for the U.S. program, provides important competitive context. With over 100 hours of flight testing across eight Block 1 vehicles, the platform demonstrates operational maturity through its modular design allowing rapid payload reconfiguration. The Ghost Bat's 38-foot length and proven carrier suitability testing make it attractive for Navy applications, with the service showing "strong interest" in the platform.

Strategic Positioning for Future Competitions

Sanchez's confidence in elbowing into the CCA competition stems from several competitive advantages developed through Lockheed Martin's extensive investment in NGAD and autonomous systems. Despite losing the Boeing F-47 NGAD contract in March 2025, the company has accumulated significant technological assets that position it favorably for CCA Increment 2.

"The knowledge obtained when 'we built and flew a sixth-gen aircraft' for the NGAD program 'is driving progress across current and emerging efforts,'" Sanchez explained, referencing Lockheed Martin's secret NGAD prototype that flew alongside Boeing's demonstrator. This represents hundreds of hours of advanced flight testing and technology validation that directly applies to unmanned platforms.

The company's NGAD loss paradoxically strengthens its CCA position. Former Air Force acquisition executive Andrew Hunter noted that Lockheed "could have won" NGAD, with the proposals being technically "close." Former Secretary Frank Kendall confirmed that Boeing's approach was "more creative" but acknowledged the technical proximity of the competing designs. This suggests Lockheed Martin developed highly advanced technologies that, while perhaps overengineered for the manned fighter role, could provide decisive advantages for unmanned applications.

Lockheed Martin's initial CCA Increment 1 failure offers additional insight into its competitive positioning. John Clark, Sanchez's predecessor, acknowledged the company offered a "gold-plated" solution that exceeded Air Force requirements. This indicates the company possesses technology mature enough to field highly capable platforms—exactly what may be needed for Increment 2's anticipated emphasis on increased capability and survivability.

The Air Force has indicated Increment 2 will involve "more than 20 industry partners" and could incorporate stealth technologies, representing "a more complicated platform" than Increment 1. This plays directly to Lockheed Martin's core competencies in low-observable technologies and complex systems integration, areas where the company's NGAD investments provide clear competitive advantages.

Technology Transfer and Competitive Advantages

Beyond the NGAD technology foundation, Lockheed Martin has developed specific capabilities that provide competitive differentiation for CCA applications. CEO James Taiclet revealed the company has already created "a pod-based system for the F-35 that would allow the aircraft to coordinate the operations of multiple CCAs simultaneously using a tablet interface." This operational capability, compatible with both F-35 and F-22 platforms, demonstrates mature human-machine teaming technology that competitors may lack.

The company's $100 million "Project Carrera" investment in manned-unmanned teaming technology, including $20 million specifically for F-35 development work, has produced tangible results. Skunk Works has demonstrated control stations and flight control systems that enable fifth-generation fighters to manage multiple autonomous platforms—capabilities directly applicable to CCA Increment 2 requirements.

Most significantly, Lockheed Martin's approach addresses the scale challenge that increasingly dominates Air Force thinking. Taiclet emphasized the need to "meet the J-20, which is the Chinese fifth-generation combat tactical aircraft, with enough numbers in the Pacific." The company's vision of fielding numerous CCAs controlled by existing F-35 and F-22 platforms provides a pathway to rapid capability expansion without waiting for sixth-generation fighter deployment.

This positions Vectis as more than a standalone platform—it represents an integrated solution leveraging Lockheed Martin's installed base of 1,100+ F-35s globally and the F-22 fleet. By enabling current fifth-generation fighters to control multiple autonomous wingmen, the company can offer immediate force multiplication capabilities while competitors develop platforms requiring new manned aircraft for optimal employment.

International Implications and Technology Integration

The Vectis announcement underscores intensifying global competition in unmanned combat aircraft. Beyond U.S. competitors, China has positioned itself as a leader in stealth flying wing UCAVs, while platforms like Turkey's Kızılelma and India's HAL CATS Warrior demonstrate worldwide interest in similar capabilities.

Lockheed Martin emphasizes alignment with U.S. Government Reference Architectures to avoid vendor lock-in and ensure compatibility across command and control systems. The platform integrates with the company's Mission Domain Control eXperience (MDCX) autonomy system, supporting multi-domain connectivity whether operating standalone or as part of integrated teaming missions.

Development Timeline and Investment Strategy

Skunk Works plans aggressive development timelines, stating the company is investing its own funds to "design, build and fly within two years." Development is already underway, with components ordered and teams executing initial builds. This self-funded approach provides flexibility to tailor the platform for multiple potential customers while demonstrating corporate commitment to the CCA market.

The emphasis on rapid development and affordability indicates a shift from traditional, decades-long acquisition timelines that have been increasingly criticized. The different CCA increments aim to avoid extended development periods and quickly field affordable combat mass.

Market Forces and Future Outlook

Market Forces and Future Outlook

The emergence of Vectis represents a calculated response to evolving Air Force priorities that increasingly favor quantity and rapid deployment over individual platform sophistication. Recent simulations suggest that larger quantities of affordable CCAs may better meet operational needs than smaller fleets of highly advanced systems. This shift in thinking, driven by Pacific theater requirements and Chinese military developments, creates opportunities for companies with proven ability to deliver survivable platforms at scale.

Lockheed Martin's timing appears strategically sound. The Air Force has described Increment 1 as "proof of concept, more of an experimental kind of approach," while Increment 2 is "targeted to be fieldable, combat-ready, scalable design and production." This evolution toward operational systems favors established defense contractors with mature production capabilities over startups focused on cost reduction.

The Navy dimension adds another competitive vector, with four major aerospace primes awarded "conceptual designs" contracts for carrier-based CCAs. Lockheed Martin received a separate Navy contract for common control architecture work with the Skunk Works MDCX autonomy platform, which successfully demonstrated controlling a General Atomics MQ-20 Avenger in November 2024. This multi-service approach suggests broad Pentagon commitment to human-machine teaming concepts.

With Boeing focused on F-47 development and having limited success in the first CCA increment, Lockheed Martin faces reduced competition from traditional aerospace giants. The company's comprehensive approach—combining advanced platform development with mature control systems and integration with existing fighter fleets—provides multiple pathways to program participation even if not selected as the primary platform provider.

As Sanchez positions it, Vectis aims to "deliver class-leading survivability in an agile, multi-role package" at scale-enabling price points. This reflects a company leveraging billions in NGAD investment to capture a significant share of what industry analysts project as a $20+ billion CCA market through the 2030s. The strategic calculation appears to be that technology leadership combined with production scale advantages provides reasonable odds of success in the intensifying competition for air dominance platforms.

Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works Unveils Vectis CCA, Joining Intensifying Unmanned Fighter Competition

Company positions high-survivability drone as NGAD-compatible platform for future air dominance

Lockheed Martin's secretive Skunk Works division has officially unveiled Vectis, a self-funded Group 5 Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) designed to operate alongside fifth- and sixth-generation crewed fighters in contested airspace. The announcement, made Sept. 21 ahead of the Air, Space & Cyber Conference, marks the aerospace giant's formal entry into the rapidly evolving unmanned fighter market as the Pentagon accelerates development of autonomous combat platforms.

Executive Decision-Making and Strategic Direction

The Vectis development represents a strategic decision by Lockheed Martin's senior leadership to maintain the company's central role in U.S. combat aviation. The initiative was driven by key executives including CEO James Taiclet, who has emphasized digital transformation and advanced technologies since taking the helm in 2020. Greg Ulmer, president of Aeronautics and formerly head of the F-35 program, oversees the $25 billion Aeronautics division that includes Skunk Works.

The decision to proceed with Vectis involved recently appointed Skunk Works president OJ Sanchez, who took over from John Clark in January 2025. Clark, who led Skunk Works for three years during the crucial NGAD competition period, has moved to senior vice president for Technology and Strategic Innovation, reporting directly to CEO Taiclet. This executive reshuffling positions Lockheed Martin to coordinate autonomous systems development across all business areas while Sanchez, a former Air Force F-22 pilot with over 30 years of combined military and industry experience, focuses Skunk Works on next-generation capabilities.

Technical Specifications and Competitive Positioning

Sanchez described Vectis as larger than Lockheed's Common Multi-Mission Truck cruise missile but smaller than an F-16 fighter, featuring a tailless lambda wing configuration. The platform emphasizes multi-mission flexibility spanning precision strike, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) targeting, electronic warfare, and both offensive and defensive counter-air operations. Company operational analysis indicates supersonic capability is not necessary for the CCA mission set, though the platform must keep pace with fifth-generation fighters.

The design incorporates work from Skunk Works' sixth-generation fighter prototype and technologies from the RQ-170 stealth UAS, positioning Vectis to deliver what Lockheed Martin calls "best in CCA class survivability." This approach contrasts with competitors' emphasis on affordability and some degree of attritable operation, reflecting different philosophical approaches to the unmanned combat aviation challenge.

Current CCA Program Status and Government Decision Authority

The CCA program's future direction will be determined by a multi-layered acquisition hierarchy within the Department of Defense. The Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (SAF/AQ) serves as the Service Acquisition Executive, with ultimate decision authority for ACAT 1C programs. This position oversees $40 billion annual investments that include major programs across multiple Program Executive Officers (PEOs).

The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (AFLCMC), led by a Lieutenant General, manages weapon systems from inception to retirement and was recently reorganized to split the Fighters and Bombers Directorate into separate advanced aircraft and bomber directorates. Collaborative combat aircraft development involves the PEO for fighter aircraft, Air Force Research Laboratory commanders, Air Combat Command, Air Force Test Center, and USAF deputy chief of staff for plans and programs.

The first generation of Air Force CCAs is reaching critical milestones, with General Atomics' YFQ-42A beginning flight testing in August 2025 and Anduril's YFQ-44A Fury preparing for first flight. Both platforms received the historic "FQ" designation, marking them as the first unmanned aircraft classified as autonomous fighters. The Air Force plans to order 100 CCAs over the next five years as part of Increment 1, using a "planning assumption" of 1,000 total CCAs for force structure analysis.

Comparative Analysis of CCA Competitors

The current CCA competition presents distinctly different approaches to unmanned combat aviation. General Atomics' YFQ-42A emphasizes endurance over speed and maneuverability, leveraging the company's Gambit series concept. Gambit 1 is described as "a nimble sensing platform optimized for long endurance" capable of leading strike packages. General Atomics, building more than 100 aircraft annually, represents established defense industry experience with proven track records in unmanned systems.

Anduril's YFQ-44A Fury leverages the company's Lattice software and features an open, modular system designed to accelerate prototyping to production timelines. This Silicon Valley startup approach, backed by the acquisition of Blue Force Technologies, represents newer thinking versus traditional defense industrial base methodologies.

Boeing's MQ-28 Ghost Bat, while not selected for the U.S. program, provides important competitive context. With over 100 hours of flight testing across eight Block 1 vehicles, the platform demonstrates operational maturity through its modular design allowing rapid payload reconfiguration. The Ghost Bat's 38-foot length and proven carrier suitability testing make it attractive for Navy applications, with the service showing "strong interest" in the platform.

Strategic Positioning for Future Competitions

Sanchez's confidence in elbowing into the CCA competition stems from several competitive advantages developed through Lockheed Martin's extensive investment in NGAD and autonomous systems. Despite losing the Boeing F-47 NGAD contract in March 2025, the company has accumulated significant technological assets that position it favorably for CCA Increment 2.

"The knowledge obtained when 'we built and flew a sixth-gen aircraft' for the NGAD program 'is driving progress across current and emerging efforts,'" Sanchez explained, referencing Lockheed Martin's secret NGAD prototype that flew alongside Boeing's demonstrator. This represents hundreds of hours of advanced flight testing and technology validation that directly applies to unmanned platforms.

The company's NGAD loss paradoxically strengthens its CCA position. Former Air Force acquisition executive Andrew Hunter noted that Lockheed "could have won" NGAD, with the proposals being technically "close." Former Secretary Frank Kendall confirmed that Boeing's approach was "more creative" but acknowledged the technical proximity of the competing designs. This suggests Lockheed Martin developed highly advanced technologies that, while perhaps overengineered for the manned fighter role, could provide decisive advantages for unmanned applications.

Lockheed Martin's initial CCA Increment 1 failure offers additional insight into its competitive positioning. John Clark, Sanchez's predecessor, acknowledged the company offered a "gold-plated" solution that exceeded Air Force requirements. This indicates the company possesses technology mature enough to field highly capable platforms—exactly what may be needed for Increment 2's anticipated emphasis on increased capability and survivability.

The Air Force has indicated Increment 2 will involve "more than 20 industry partners" and could incorporate stealth technologies, representing "a more complicated platform" than Increment 1. This plays directly to Lockheed Martin's core competencies in low-observable technologies and complex systems integration, areas where the company's NGAD investments provide clear competitive advantages.

Technology Transfer and Competitive Advantages

Beyond the NGAD technology foundation, Lockheed Martin has developed specific capabilities that provide competitive differentiation for CCA applications. CEO James Taiclet revealed the company has already created "a pod-based system for the F-35 that would allow the aircraft to coordinate the operations of multiple CCAs simultaneously using a tablet interface." This operational capability, compatible with both F-35 and F-22 platforms, demonstrates mature human-machine teaming technology that competitors may lack.

The company's $100 million "Project Carrera" investment in manned-unmanned teaming technology, including $20 million specifically for F-35 development work, has produced tangible results. Skunk Works has demonstrated control stations and flight control systems that enable fifth-generation fighters to manage multiple autonomous platforms—capabilities directly applicable to CCA Increment 2 requirements.

Most significantly, Lockheed Martin's approach addresses the scale challenge that increasingly dominates Air Force thinking. Taiclet emphasized the need to "meet the J-20, which is the Chinese fifth-generation combat tactical aircraft, with enough numbers in the Pacific." The company's vision of fielding numerous CCAs controlled by existing F-35 and F-22 platforms provides a pathway to rapid capability expansion without waiting for sixth-generation fighter deployment.

This positions Vectis as more than a standalone platform—it represents an integrated solution leveraging Lockheed Martin's installed base of 1,100+ F-35s globally and the F-22 fleet. By enabling current fifth-generation fighters to control multiple autonomous wingmen, the company can offer immediate force multiplication capabilities while competitors develop platforms requiring new manned aircraft for optimal employment.

International Implications and Technology Integration

The Vectis announcement underscores intensifying global competition in unmanned combat aircraft. Beyond U.S. competitors, China has positioned itself as a leader in stealth flying wing UCAVs, while platforms like Turkey's Kızılelma and India's HAL CATS Warrior demonstrate worldwide interest in similar capabilities.

Lockheed Martin emphasizes alignment with U.S. Government Reference Architectures to avoid vendor lock-in and ensure compatibility across command and control systems. The platform integrates with the company's Mission Domain Control eXperience (MDCX) autonomy system, supporting multi-domain connectivity whether operating standalone or as part of integrated teaming missions.

Development Timeline and Investment Strategy

Skunk Works plans aggressive development timelines, stating the company is investing its own funds to "design, build and fly within two years." Development is already underway, with components ordered and teams executing initial builds. This self-funded approach provides flexibility to tailor the platform for multiple potential customers while demonstrating corporate commitment to the CCA market.

The emphasis on rapid development and affordability indicates a shift from traditional, decades-long acquisition timelines that have been increasingly criticized. The different CCA increments aim to avoid extended development periods and quickly field affordable combat mass.

Market Forces and Future Outlook

Market Forces and Future Outlook

The emergence of Vectis represents a calculated response to evolving Air Force priorities that increasingly favor quantity and rapid deployment over individual platform sophistication. Recent simulations suggest that larger quantities of affordable CCAs may better meet operational needs than smaller fleets of highly advanced systems. This shift in thinking, driven by Pacific theater requirements and Chinese military developments, creates opportunities for companies with proven ability to deliver survivable platforms at scale.

Lockheed Martin's timing appears strategically sound. The Air Force has described Increment 1 as "proof of concept, more of an experimental kind of approach," while Increment 2 is "targeted to be fieldable, combat-ready, scalable design and production." This evolution toward operational systems favors established defense contractors with mature production capabilities over startups focused on cost reduction.

The Navy dimension adds another competitive vector, with four major aerospace primes awarded "conceptual designs" contracts for carrier-based CCAs. Lockheed Martin received a separate Navy contract for common control architecture work with the Skunk Works MDCX autonomy platform, which successfully demonstrated controlling a General Atomics MQ-20 Avenger in November 2024. This multi-service approach suggests broad Pentagon commitment to human-machine teaming concepts.

With Boeing focused on F-47 development and having limited success in the first CCA increment, Lockheed Martin faces reduced competition from traditional aerospace giants. The company's comprehensive approach—combining advanced platform development with mature control systems and integration with existing fighter fleets—provides multiple pathways to program participation even if not selected as the primary platform provider.

As Sanchez positions it, Vectis aims to "deliver class-leading survivability in an agile, multi-role package" at scale-enabling price points. This reflects a company leveraging billions in NGAD investment to capture a significant share of what industry analysts project as a $20+ billion CCA market through the 2030s. The strategic calculation appears to be that technology leadership combined with production scale advantages provides reasonable odds of success in the intensifying competition for air dominance platforms.


Sidebar: F-35 Problems Could Shadow CCA Ambitions

Lockheed Martin's pursuit of CCA Increment 2 unfolds against the backdrop of mounting criticism over the company's performance on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, raising questions about whether acquisition officials will trust the aerospace giant with another major unmanned systems contract.

Chronic Delivery and Performance Issues

The Government Accountability Office's September 2025 report paints a troubling picture of F-35 program execution. In 2024, Lockheed Martin delivered all 110 F-35s late, with delays averaging 238 days—nearly four times worse than 2023's 61-day average. The company has struggled with Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3), a critical software and hardware upgrade that is three years behind schedule and has forced the Pentagon to accept 174 aircraft in non-combat-capable configurations.

The Block 4 modernization effort, intended to enhance weapons capabilities and sensors, is now at least $6 billion over budget and five years behind schedule. As of early 2025, Lockheed faced more than 4,000 parts shortages in final assembly—double historic levels—while 52 aircraft sat idle awaiting components. The program's total acquisition costs have grown to more than $485 billion as of December 2023.

Congressional and Pentagon Frustration

Lawmakers have lost patience with Lockheed Martin's F-35 performance. Representatives Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) introduced a resolution stating that Lockheed and its subcontractors have "failed to deliver what the company promised" and that the Pentagon has "failed to hold the program accountable." The Air Force has reduced its 2026 F-35 procurement request to just 24 aircraft—half of last year's plan—citing frustration over upgrade delays.

The GAO criticized the Pentagon's incentive fee structure, which has awarded Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney "hundreds of millions of dollars in incentive fees" despite chronic late deliveries. The watchdog warned that "taxpayers risk continuing to reward contractors for underperformance" unless fee structures are reformed.

Potential Impact on CCA Competition

These performance issues could significantly affect Lockheed Martin's CCA prospects in several ways. Air Force acquisition officials may be reluctant to award another major contract to a company that has consistently failed to meet F-35 delivery schedules and cost targets. The emphasis on "affordable" and "scalable" systems for CCA Increment 2 directly conflicts with Lockheed Martin's recent track record of cost overruns and schedule delays.

Moreover, the Air Force's stated preference for competitive increments and avoiding vendor lock-in suggests officials want alternatives to traditional defense contractors with problematic performance histories. Anduril and General Atomics, the Increment 1 winners, have demonstrated more predictable execution despite being smaller companies.

Counterarguments and Mitigating Factors

However, several factors may limit the F-35 program's impact on CCA competition. The unmanned systems market operates under different dynamics than manned fighter programs, with typically shorter development cycles and lower technical complexity. Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works division maintains a separate track record from the F-35 program office, with historically successful execution on classified advanced aircraft programs.

The company's NGAD investment and proven technologies provide tangible competitive advantages that may outweigh historical performance concerns. Former Air Force officials have noted that Lockheed Martin's NGAD proposal was technically competitive with Boeing's winning design, suggesting the company retains strong engineering capabilities despite program management challenges.

Additionally, the Air Force's "more than 20 industry partners" approach for Increment 2 suggests the service wants multiple competitors, potentially including companies with mixed performance records if they offer unique technological capabilities. The integration advantages Lockheed Martin provides through its existing F-35 and F-22 fleets may prove decisive despite F-35 program troubles.

Strategic Implications

Ultimately, the F-35 performance issues represent a significant headwind for Lockheed Martin's CCA ambitions but may not prove decisive. The Air Force faces complex tradeoffs between proven technology capabilities and reliable program execution. As one industry analyst noted, "the question becomes whether the Air Force values technological superiority over schedule predictability" in an era where rapid fielding has become a strategic imperative.

 


Sources

  1. D'Urso, Stefano. "Skunk Works Introduces Vectis Stealth CCA." The Aviationist, Sept. 21, 2025. https://theaviationist.com/2025/09/21/skunk-works-vectis-stealth-cca/
  2. Lockheed Martin. "Lockheed Martin Vectis™: Best in CCA Class Survivability." Press Release, Sept. 21, 2025. https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2025-09-21-Lockheed-Martin-Vectis-TM-Best-in-CCA-Class-Survivability
  3. Tirpak, John A. "Lockheed Skunk Works Unveils CCA-Like Fighter Escort 'Vectis'." Air & Space Forces Magazine, Sept. 21, 2025. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/vectis-lockheed-skunk-works-cca/
  4. Gould, Joe. "Skunk Works Unveils Stealthy Collaborative Combat Aircraft Design." Aviation Week, Sept. 21, 2025. https://aviationweek.com/defense/aircraft-propulsion/skunk-works-unveils-stealthy-collaborative-combat-aircraft-design
  5. Mehta, Aaron. "Skunk Works Unveils Vectis Air Combat Drone That Puts A Premium On Stealth." The War Zone, Sept. 20, 2025. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/skunk-works-unveils-vectis-air-040105648.html
  6. Congressional Research Service. "U.S. Air Force Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)." Congress.gov, 2025. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12740
  7. Defense News. "Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), USA." Airforce Technology, June 21, 2024. https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/collaborative-combat-aircraft-cca-usa/
  8. Insinna, Valerie, et al. "EXCLUSIVE: Navy taps four aerospace primes to design autonomous drone wingmen." Breaking Defense, Sept. 5, 2025. https://breakingdefense.com/2025/09/exclusive-navy-taps-four-aerospace-primes-to-design-autonomous-drone-wingmen/
  9. IDGA. "Tracking 2024 Updates to the Air Force's Collaborative Combat Aircraft." Dec. 19, 2024. https://www.idga.org/aviation/articles/2024-updates-to-air-force-collaborative-combat-aircraft-cca
  10. Tirpak, John A. "Anduril and General Atomics to Develop New Collaborative Combat Aircraft for Air Force." Air & Space Forces Magazine, Apr. 24, 2024. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/cca-contract-winners-to-be-announced-imminently/
  11. ExecutiveGov. "Air Force Announces CCA Program Milestone." Sept. 3, 2025. https://www.executivegov.com/articles/air-force-yfq-42a-cca-general-atomics
  12. Defense Scoop. "Air Force designates CCA drones as first unmanned fighter aircraft." Mar. 4, 2025. https://defensescoop.com/2025/03/04/air-force-collaborative-combat-aircraft-designation-anduril-general-atomics-cca/
  13. D'Urso, Stefano. "General Atomics' YFQ-42A Collaborative Combat Aircraft Takes Flight." The Aviationist, Aug. 27, 2025. https://theaviationist.com/2025/08/27/yfq-42a-cca-takes-flight/
  14. Congressional Research Service. "U.S. Air Force Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Fighter." Congress.gov, 2025. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12805
  15. Lockheed Martin. "Lockheed Martin Announces New Skunk Works®, Integrated Fighter Leaders." Press Release, Jan. 13, 2025. https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2025-01-13-Lockheed-Martin-Announces-New-Skunk-Works-R-,-Integrated-Fighter-Leaders
  16. Skunk Works Introduces Vectis Stealth CCA - The Aviationist

Saturday, September 20, 2025

US Space Force Battles China's "Orbital Hide-and-Seek" with Advanced Maui Surveillance Complex

Hawaii facility emerges as critical asset in growing space surveillance rivalry as China deploys deceptive satellite tactics

MAUI SPACE SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX, Hawaii — High atop the 10,023-foot summit of Haleakala volcano, the U.S. Space Force's most advanced surveillance telescopes are locked in an increasingly sophisticated game of orbital cat-and-mouse with China, as Beijing develops new capabilities to hide its satellite activities from American detection systems.

General Chance Saltzman, Chief of Space Operations, revealed this week that China is "intentionally trying to do things" in space "so we don't see it," employing tactics ranging from changing satellite brightness to maneuvering in what Beijing believes are U.S. blind spots. Speaking during a rare visit to the Maui Space Surveillance Complex, Saltzman emphasized the escalating challenge: "We've got to keep pace, and we've got to keep advancing our capabilities so that that's harder and harder for them to do."

The Strategic High Ground

The Maui facility represents what military officials call the "third-best place to put a telescope in the world" and the optimal location for daylight sky observations. Positioned above Maui's cloud layer with crisp, clear air and minimal light pollution, the complex provides unparalleled views of satellites and space objects across the Pacific region.

"From a space perspective, this particular piece of land is pretty important because some of the work you can do here, you just can't do elsewhere," Saltzman said. The strategic location allows surveillance of geostationary satellites hovering over the Pacific, with sight lines extending from the U.S. West Coast to mainland China.

The centerpiece of operations is the Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) telescope, a 75-ton, 3.67-meter instrument that ranks as the Department of Defense's largest optical telescope. Built in the 1990s, the massive telescope can rotate quickly enough to track low-Earth orbit satellites and ballistic missiles, though it captures only about 10 percent of a satellite's total orbital path.

China's Deceptive Space Maneuvers

Recent intelligence reveals the sophisticated nature of China's space deception efforts. The Space Force has deployed secretive "situational awareness indications and warning payloads" aboard satellites since 2023 that have been "collecting all kinds of very interesting data on the Chinese SOSI [Space Observation Surveillance and Identification System] network" — Beijing's equivalent to Washington's Space Surveillance Network.

The orbital surveillance rivalry reached new heights in September when China's Jilin-1 satellite constellation captured images of a U.S. WorldView Legion satellite that was itself monitoring Chinese space assets, marking "the first time Chang Guang had made public such dynamic space-based imagery." This tit-for-tat demonstration occurred after Maxar Intelligence had earlier published detailed images of China's advanced Shijian-26 reconnaissance satellite.

Colonel Barry Croker, who leads the Space Force's domain-awareness efforts under Mission Delta 2, noted the fundamental challenge: "We built a really great system for telling us where things were. It's difficult to know where things are going to be." The problem intensifies when satellites maneuver immediately after leaving observation windows, potentially ending up far from predicted locations.

Technological Arms Race

China has demonstrated remarkable advances in surveillance technology, including new laser-imaging satellites "powerful enough to capture human facial details from more than 60 miles (100 kilometers) away" — a 100-fold improvement over traditional spy cameras. This synthetic aperture lidar technology could enable unprecedented surveillance of foreign satellites and ground targets.

China's Yaogan-41 surveillance satellite, launched in December 2023, "may allow it to keep watch around the clock on the entire Indo-Pacific region from geostationary orbit," potentially tracking "car-sized objects throughout the entire Indo-Pacific region."

The complexity extends beyond simple tracking. U.S. officials have observed Chinese satellites "maneuvering in and out and around each other in synchronicity and in control," demonstrating capabilities that could be used to capture or disable other nations' spacecraft.

Modernization Under Pressure

The Maui complex is undergoing critical upgrades to meet evolving threats. Three Ground-Based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance Systems telescopes are receiving modernized "sensors, optics, algorithms, and post-processing of the data so they can 'see smaller, dimmer things further' into space." The Maui upgrade is expected to be completed by April 2026 or later.

In February 2025, KBR Inc. received a $176 million seven-year contract to provide "operations and equipment maintenance support, site modernization, and recapitalization to the existing legacy space domain awareness capabilities at Maui."

The facility now tracks over 40,000 objects in space, a mission that began during the Cold War but has transformed dramatically as space evolved from a peaceful domain to a contested warfighting environment.

Cultural and Environmental Challenges

The expansion faces significant local opposition. Native Hawaiians consider Haleakala sacred, and Space Force proposals for up to seven additional telescopes on the summit have met with protests. A 2023 diesel fuel spill of 700 gallons further angered local communities.

Saltzman acknowledged these concerns, stating the Space Force is "honored to be associated" with Haleakala and is "fully committed to respecting the mountain's cultural and spiritual significance and moving forward only in complete partnership with the community."

Space Domain Awareness Evolution

Saltzman has pushed for a "comprehensive program" rather than incremental improvements, noting that "space domain awareness capabilities are struggling to keep pace" with exponential growth in space congestion. The Space Force increased its space domain awareness budget by nearly 30 percent, from $373 million to $484 million.

The mission encompasses three core objectives in Saltzman's "theory of success": avoid operational surprise, deny first-mover advantage, and confront malign activity. Space domain awareness underpins all three goals.

Future Implications

Saltzman emphasized that the Space Force is now "really recognizing" that "space is a contested warfighting domain," driving priorities including space domain awareness, resilience, and capabilities to "hold at risk" adversary space assets.

As the orbital environment grows increasingly crowded and contested, the Maui Space Surveillance Complex stands as a critical sentinel, its powerful telescopes peering through Earth's atmosphere to track the subtle movements and deceptions of an new kind of warfare — one played out in the silence of space, 200 miles above the Pacific Ocean.

"If you're going to do something irresponsible, we're going to see it. We're going to tell the world, and then we're going to react and respond," Saltzman declared, a promise that depends heavily on the continued advancement of facilities like the one perched atop this Hawaiian volcano.


Sources

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  16. When China plays orbital hide-and-seek, Maui’s telescopes give the US an edge - Defense One

Friday, September 19, 2025

Red Sea Operations Reveal Critical Lessons for Future Naval Warfare


Extended Combat Operations Test Navy's Readiness Against Asymmetric Threats

Bottom Line Up Front: The U.S. Navy's sustained combat operations in the Red Sea against Iranian-backed Houthis have exposed critical vulnerabilities in missile production capacity, cost-effective countermeasures, and operational tempo sustainability while demonstrating the service's adaptability in the first major naval combat since World War II.

Historic Naval Engagement Intensity

Since October 2023, the U.S. Navy has conducted the most sustained naval combat operations in eight decades. The Navy has defended against nearly 400 attack drones and missiles since Iranian-backed Houthi militants began their assault on commercial and military ships, firing back at levels comparable to World War II battles.

By mid-March 2025, the Houthis had attacked more than 190 ships, sinking two, seizing another, and killing at least four seafarers. Despite this persistent threat, no U.S. Navy ships have been struck by Houthi drones or missiles as of January 2025.

The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group bore the brunt of these operations during a historic nine-month deployment, expending more than 80 air-to-air missiles, 350 air-to-surface weapons, and 100 Standard and Tomahawk missiles. Captain Chris Hill described the mission as "the most complex series of engagements that the Navy has seen since World War II."

Vice Admiral Brendan McLane noted that "We've done the analysis with what we used to shoot in World War II, and we're at about two rounds per incoming missile to shoot (Houthi strikes) down."

The Cost Asymmetry Crisis

The most significant strategic concern emerging from Red Sea operations is the devastating cost imbalance between U.S. defensive measures and Houthi attack capabilities. Analysts estimate the Navy expended close to $2 billion in ordnance in 2024, with cost-exchange ratios heavily favoring the Houthis.

Unsustainable Economics:

  • SM-6 missiles cost $4.3 million each to destroy $20,000 drones
  • AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles cost $400,000 per drone intercept
  • Multiple interceptors fired per target to ensure kill probability
  • The Eisenhower Strike Group's total expenditure: 155 Standard missiles, 135 Tomahawks, 60 air-to-air missiles, and 420 air-to-surface munitions—hundreds of millions in costs

Breakthrough Solutions: The Navy achieved tactical innovation through cost-effective alternatives. AGR-20 laser-guided rockets, deployed during Operation Rough Rider, cost only $25,000 per intercept—achieving near-parity with Houthi drone costs and accounting for nearly half of all drone kills. Other promising solutions include:

  • Close-In Weapon System: $8,100 for 300 rounds per target
  • Directed energy weapons: Projected $5 per engagement
  • Coyote interceptors: $100,000 per unit
  • Anduril Roadrunner: $500,000 per reusable interceptor

Production Capacity Crisis

Red Sea operations have exposed alarming deficiencies in U.S. missile production that threaten sustained operations. The scale becomes clear when examining consumption versus production rates:

Tomahawk Production Breakdown:

  • 2023 annual production: 55 missiles
  • Single-day Yemen strikes: 80+ Tomahawks fired (146% of annual production)
  • Current delivery rate: 5 missiles per month with 2-year lead times
  • Iran-Israel conflict consumption: 80 SM-3 missiles in 12 days (6.5 years of production)

Systemic Production Constraints:

  • SM-3 Block IIA: Only 12 missiles procured annually through 2029
  • SM-6 production: 125 missiles in 2025, planned increase to 300 by 2029
  • Historical comparison: Reagan's 1985 request for 1,380 SM-2s versus today's 125 total Standard missiles
  • Fleet capacity: 10,000 VLS tubes across entire Navy, but only 7,000 total missiles available for full replenishment

The fundamental bottleneck lies in rocket motor production, with limited qualified suppliers and "just-in-time" manufacturing philosophy optimized for peacetime efficiency rather than wartime surge capacity. Raytheon has invested over $115 million for 67% capacity increase at its Huntsville facility, but the rocket motor supply base remains the critical constraint.

Operational Innovations and Challenges

The Navy successfully adapted its warfighting concepts under unprecedented operational tempo. Carrier Wing 3 flew six to seven days per week, launching 80-140 sorties daily, while applying composite warfare commander concepts across distributed operations.

Intelligence and Logistics Limitations: Naval aircraft struggled with autonomous target identification using older ATFLIR targeting pods, requiring reliance on Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drones—15 of which were shot down at $450 million total cost. Traditional "buddy store" refueling required 20-30% of carrier aircraft to serve as tankers, compromising mission capacity.

Personnel Endurance: The Eisenhower spent 200 consecutive days at sea without port calls, pushing crew endurance to limits. Innovative morale measures included Starlink connectivity for family communications, proving critical for maintaining operational effectiveness during extended combat deployments.

Strategic Implications for Near-Peer Conflict

Red Sea operations provide sobering insights for potential conflict with China over Taiwan. If current air defense systems approach their limits against relatively primitive Houthi technology, the implications for withstanding People's Liberation Army capabilities become deeply concerning.

Taiwan Scenario Scaling: Defense analyst Mark Cancian's wargaming shows U.S. submarines would "rapidly fire everything they have" at Chinese forces, consuming torpedoes "at a much higher rate than the U.S. Navy has experienced since World War II." Where Red Sea operations consumed hundreds of missiles over 18 months, a Taiwan conflict could require thousands within weeks.

China possesses the world's largest missile force with thousands of anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons. Unlike Houthi operations 8,000 miles from major U.S. bases, Pacific operations would occur without nearby replenishment facilities. The USS Laboon's near-depletion after engaging just 17 Houthi weapons in 10 hours illustrates the impossibility of sustained Western Pacific operations without massive pre-positioned munitions.

The Limits of Defensive Strategy

The Red Sea experience demonstrates fundamental inadequacies of purely defensive strategies against adversaries with state sponsor support. Despite tactical successes in intercepting attacks, the strategic mission failed—commercial shipping remains down 60% from pre-crisis levels, forcing costly African routing that adds 20 days and 33% fuel costs.

Iran's Strategic Sanctuary: Iran provides Houthis inexhaustible supplies while remaining largely immune from retaliation. Intelligence reports indicate China and Russia covertly support Houthi operations through satellite imagery and weapons manufacturing capabilities, while protecting their own commercial interests—Chinese shipping through Suez has increased 25% since October 2023.

Over 1,000 U.S. airstrikes since March 2025 have failed to degrade Houthi capabilities significantly, demonstrating how proxy forces can absorb massive punishment while maintaining operations through external support. Commander Eric Blomberg articulated the fundamental vulnerability: "We only have to get it wrong once... The Houthis just have to get one through."

Attrition Mathematics: This dynamic becomes catastrophic against near-peer adversaries capable of saturation attacks. The requirement for multiple interceptors per target to ensure kill probability means Chinese coordinated strikes could exhaust U.S. defensive magazines within hours rather than the months seen against Houthis.

Economic and Industrial Base Requirements

The Red Sea experience underscores urgent needs for defense industrial modernization. Current high-cost, low-volume production optimized for precision conflicts proves inadequate against asymmetric threats employing swarms of inexpensive platforms.

Traditional Munitions Solutions:

  • Large multiyear contracts for LRASMs, SM-6s, and Tomahawks (yielding 5-15% cost savings)
  • Production scaling: SM-6 to 300 annually by 2028, AIM-9X to 2,500 by 2027
  • Directed energy weapons integration for $5 per engagement costs
  • Enhanced CIWS employment and electronic warfare countermeasures

Unmanned Systems: The Critical Force Multiplier

Red Sea operations highlight the transformative potential of unmanned platforms to address cost asymmetry and capacity constraints, yet the Navy's current development timeline appears inadequate for emerging threats.

Current Unmanned Initiatives: The Navy has several unmanned programs in development, but their projected deployment schedules may prove too slow for rapidly evolving threat environments:

  • MQ-25 Stingray carrier-based refueling drone: Expected to resolve aerial refueling constraints and provide reconnaissance capabilities, but full operational capability remains years away
  • Surface unmanned vessels for distributed operations
  • Unmanned underwater vehicles for reconnaissance and mine countermeasures

Accelerated Unmanned Requirements: The cost mathematics of Red Sea operations demand immediate acceleration of unmanned platform adoption. Unmanned interceptor systems could fundamentally alter defensive economics:

Expendable Interceptor Drones:

  • Mass-producible unmanned aerial vehicles designed specifically for kamikaze intercepts
  • Unit costs potentially under $50,000 per platform—finally achieving cost parity with threats
  • Rapid production using commercial manufacturing techniques rather than defense industry timelines
  • Deployment from surface ships, submarines, or land-based launchers

Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) for Distributed Defense: Current Houthi attacks demonstrate the vulnerability of concentrating defensive assets in high-value platforms. Unmanned surface vessels could revolutionize naval defense by:

  • Deploying distributed sensor networks across wide areas
  • Carrying defensive missiles without risking human crews
  • Operating closer to threat areas than manned platforms
  • Providing expendable defensive barriers around high-value assets

Autonomous Patrol Systems: The intelligence gathering limitations exposed in Red Sea operations—requiring external Air Force assets after losing 15 MQ-9 Reapers—highlight needs for dedicated naval unmanned surveillance platforms with greater survivability and integration with fleet operations.

Development Timeline Crisis: Current Navy unmanned development follows traditional defense acquisition timelines measured in decades. The Red Sea experience suggests this pace is fundamentally inadequate:

  • Commercial drone technology advances in months, not years
  • Threat systems evolve rapidly using commercial off-the-shelf components
  • Traditional military specifications may prove counterproductive for rapidly evolving unmanned systems

Commercial Integration Opportunities: The Navy could dramatically accelerate unmanned capability development by leveraging commercial drone technology and manufacturing capacity:

  • Adaptation of existing commercial platforms for military applications
  • Rapid prototyping and deployment cycles
  • Commercial manufacturing scale to achieve cost advantages
  • Reduced development timelines from years to months

Force Structure Implications: Accelerated unmanned adoption could fundamentally alter naval force structure requirements. Rather than increasing expensive manned platforms, the Navy could deploy larger numbers of less capable but more expendable unmanned systems, potentially achieving better area coverage and threat saturation at lower overall costs.

The Navy's $2 billion annual munitions expenditure against asymmetric threats proves unsustainable while maintaining readiness for peer competitors. Unmanned platforms offer the potential to reverse cost asymmetry disadvantages, but only if development and deployment timelines accelerate dramatically beyond current acquisition practices.

Conclusion

Red Sea operations provide invaluable combat experience while exposing vulnerabilities that could prove catastrophic in near-peer conflict. The Navy's tactical adaptability succeeded in protecting forces and shipping, but strategic challenges demand immediate attention.

The implications for Taiwan conflict scenarios are sobering. Current missile production crisis—requiring 6.5 years to replace 12 days of combat expenditure—becomes existential when facing adversaries capable of thousands of simultaneous precision strikes. The cost asymmetry of expending billions against thousands proves mathematically impossible against Chinese capabilities.

Most critically, the Red Sea demonstrates that defensive excellence cannot achieve strategic objectives against adversaries with sanctuary status and unlimited resupply. Despite 18 months of tactical success, strategic failure persists through Iran's immunity from retaliation and continuous Houthi resupply.

The Unmanned Imperative: The Red Sea experience reveals that traditional approaches to naval warfare—expensive manned platforms firing costly precision munitions—cannot scale to meet distributed, persistent threats. Unmanned systems offer the potential to fundamentally reverse cost asymmetry disadvantages, but only if the Navy abandons traditional acquisition timelines in favor of commercial-speed development and deployment.

The choice facing naval leadership is stark: accelerate unmanned platform adoption to match the pace of threat evolution, or accept strategic irrelevance despite tactical superiority. Current development timelines measured in decades must compress to months to remain relevant against adversaries employing commercial technology for military purposes.

Without dramatic increases in both munitions production and unmanned platform deployment, tactical excellence could prove strategically irrelevant in high-intensity conflicts. The Navy must translate Red Sea lessons into capabilities adequate for great power competition, developing operational concepts that leverage unmanned systems to achieve cost-effective area denial and threat saturation.

"These crewmembers in the strike group are going to be the next generation of instructors, the next generation of assessors, the next generation of trainers," noted Rear Admiral Kavon Hakimzadeh. Their tactical expertise, combined with strategic adaptations emphasizing unmanned force multiplication and accelerated acquisition, will determine whether American naval power can prevail in the conflicts ahead.

The Red Sea has demonstrated both the continuing relevance of traditional naval power and its fundamental limitations against distributed, persistent threats. The Navy's response—balancing immediate munitions needs with transformative unmanned capabilities—will define maritime warfare for decades to come.


Sources

  1. U.S. Navy Official Releases:
  2. Naval Professional Publications:
  3. Defense News and Analysis:
  4. Congressional and Policy Analysis:
  5. Military News Services:
  6. Defense Industry Publications:
  7. Think Tank and Academic Sources:
  8. International and Regional Analysis:
  9. Specialized Military Analysis:

How Houthis Nearly Maxed Out U.S. Navy Air Defenses - YouTube

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Varda, LeoLabs, and Anduril demonstrate on-orbit maneuver tracking and AI-enabled software integration in advance of a hypersonic reentry

Varda’s W-3 capsule after landing the Koonibba Test Range in South Australia. Photo: Varda
Commercial Space Firms Demonstrate Real-Time Hypersonic Tracking Capabilities

A groundbreaking collaboration between Varda Space Industries, LeoLabs, and Anduril showcases how commercial innovation is revolutionizing space domain awareness and missile defense

By Claude Anthropic AI | September 13, 2025

In a remarkable demonstration of how commercial space companies are reshaping national security capabilities, three innovative firms recently proved they could track and predict the trajectory of objects traveling at hypersonic speeds—more than 25 times the speed of sound. The successful test, announced September 8, represents a significant milestone in space domain awareness and could have profound implications for missile defense systems.

The Breakthrough Demonstration

The joint demonstration centered on Varda Space Industries' W-3 capsule, which performed a series of orbital maneuvers before its hypersonic reentry on May 13, 2025. With cues from Varda, LeoLabs' Global Radar Network tracked the vehicle's on-orbit maneuvers. The LeoLabs data was then integrated with Anduril's Lattice, an AI-enabled software platform that provides resilient mesh networking and low-latency communications across a global network of sensors, to provide distributed users with real-time situational awareness of on-orbit maneuvers.

What made this demonstration particularly significant was its speed of implementation. Orchestrated in under a week, the effort showcases the agility of emerging and scaling space companies to rapidly identify use cases, conduct R&D, and iterate at speed. This rapid deployment capability stands in stark contrast to traditional defense procurement timelines that can span years or decades.

The Technology Stack

Varda's Hypersonic Testbed

At the heart of the demonstration was Varda Space Industries' unique reentry vehicle, which serves as both a commercial space manufacturing platform and a hypersonic research testbed. The W-3 capsule reentered Earth's atmosphere at speeds that exceeded Mach 25, creating extreme conditions that are impossible to replicate in ground-based testing facilities.

Varda's orbital capsule enters the atmosphere at 18,000 miles per hour. The capsule hits Mach 25+ on every mission before landing by parachute on Earth. This offers a real flight environment for hypersonic reentry vehicle subsystems such as thermal protective materials, navigation, communication, and sensors. The company's approach addresses a critical gap in hypersonic research capabilities, where the hypersonic regime currently lacks a sufficient number of real-world testing environments to support the rapid test cadence required to derisk our most advanced aerospace vehicles and systems.

LeoLabs' Radar Network Evolution

LeoLabs contributed its Global Radar Network, which has evolved significantly to meet emerging space domain awareness challenges. The company recently unveiled its next-generation Scout radar system, a containerized S-band Direct Radiating Array (DRA) radar system that can be easily transported for rapid deployment to any location worldwide in response to dynamic Space Domain Awareness (SDA) missions, including monitoring foreign launches.

LeoLabs already operates 11 active radars at seven fixed sites around the world, providing satellite operators and defense organizations with detailed data on the movement of satellites and debris. The company tracks 23,000+ objects, and can detect debris down to about 10 cm in size. The Scout system extends this capability with unprecedented mobility and flexibility.

The strategic importance of this expansion cannot be overstated. "Our intent is with dozens of these systems deployed, we would be able to provide full coverage, where today, because of some of the limitations of networks like the Space Surveillance Network, those systems are really powerful radars … but most of them are clustered in the Northern Hemisphere," Frazier said. "There's big gaps in in the Southern Hemisphere and equatorial regions, over open oceans, where having this distributed network you would be able to fill those gaps and give the adversary less opportunities to maneuver."

Anduril's AI Integration Platform

The third component of this technological trinity was Anduril's Lattice platform, which served as the neural network connecting disparate sensor data into actionable intelligence. Lattice AI is an advanced software platform that powers Anduril's suite of defense solutions, enabling them to function as an integrated ecosystem. This platform is designed to process vast amounts of sensor data in real-time, providing a comprehensive situational awareness crucial for modern military operations.

Anduril's family of systems is powered by Lattice, an AI software platform that turns thousands of data streams into a realtime, 3D command and control center. The platform's ability to rapidly integrate new data sources was demonstrated by the successful incorporation of LeoLabs' radar data in less than a week.

National Security Implications

The demonstration comes at a time of heightened concern about hypersonic weapons and space-based threats. A recent think tank report warns that a wave of emerging weapons such as hypersonic glide vehicles, scramjet cruise missiles, and maneuvering reentry vehicles could evade today's missile defenses due to their high speed and unpredictable maneuvers.

However, the same characteristics that make hypersonic weapons challenging to defend against may also create new opportunities for detection. "Hypersonic weapons, the things that make them so dangerous are also what make them so vulnerable," said Masao Dahlgren, a Missile Defense Project fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

Government Investment and Interest

The U.S. government has recognized the potential of these commercial capabilities, with significant investments flowing to support their development. LeoLabs has secured a Tactical Funding Increase (TACFI) to support a software upgrade for its expeditionary Scout-class radar, as part of broader US efforts to advance Space Domain Awareness (SDA). The $4-million award, comprising $2 million from the Air Force Research Laboratory and $2 million in private capital, was issued through SpaceWERX, the US Space Force's innovation arm.

This builds on earlier investments, including a $60 million Strategic Funding Increase for startup LeoLabs last month to build a new radar at a to-be-determined site in the Indo-Pacific.

Integration with Larger Defense Systems

The commercial demonstration aligns with broader Pentagon efforts to develop comprehensive missile defense capabilities. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and Space Development Agency (SDA) are currently developing elements of a missile defense system that may be able to defend against hypersonic weapons and other emerging missile threats.

The Pentagon is developing space-based sensors that can distinguish missile threats from clutter as a key part of the Trump administration's Golden Dome missile defense initiative. The success of the commercial demonstration suggests that public-private partnerships could accelerate the development and deployment of these critical capabilities.

Future Prospects and Challenges

Expanding Capabilities

The three companies are already planning to expand their collaboration. In a future experiment, the companies are exploring opportunities to expand the demonstration to use LeoLabs' new Scout radar to detect a Varda capsule as it reenters at hypersonic speed. This would represent an even more challenging technical achievement, as tracking objects during the violent reentry phase requires detecting signatures through the plasma envelope that forms around hypersonic vehicles.

Scientific and Commercial Applications

Beyond defense applications, the technology demonstrated has significant implications for civilian space operations. As space becomes increasingly congested with satellites, debris, and commercial activities, the ability to track and predict the movements of objects at all speeds becomes critical for space traffic management.

Varda's approach also opens new possibilities for materials science research. Varda demonstrated the pharmaceutical processing equipment inside W-1 by growing crystals of Form III of the antiretroviral drug ritonavir. The company's vision extends beyond defense applications to creating "the infrastructure needed to make low Earth orbit accessible to multiple industries, from in-orbit production equipment to reliable and economical reentry capsules."

Global Competition and Strategic Considerations

The demonstration takes place against a backdrop of intensifying space competition. In 2024, LeoLabs tracked 253 successful launches to low Earth orbit — 155 of those by the U.S. and 86 by its adversaries, including 65 launched by China. This rapid growth in space activity makes space domain awareness increasingly critical for national security.

The ability to rapidly deploy tracking capabilities anywhere in the world could prove crucial for monitoring activities in contested regions. According to the Air & Space Forces Magazine report, interest on ground-based radars has been growing, as the U.S. Space Force is pursuing improved space domain awareness, or SDA, as one of its top priorities.

Technical Challenges and Innovations

The Physics of Hypersonic Detection

Tracking hypersonic objects presents unique technical challenges that the demonstration successfully addressed. It is impossible to replicate the coupled aero-thermal-chemistry conditions at high-hypersonic flights on the ground. Varda's capsule experiences sustained plasma conditions in flight: 300W/cm² heat flux. 18,000K+ in the flow field.

These extreme conditions create both challenges and opportunities for detection systems. The intense heat and plasma formation that occur during hypersonic flight can interfere with some tracking methods while potentially making objects more visible to others.

AI and Machine Learning Integration

The successful integration of AI-powered analysis represents a significant advance in processing complex sensor data. The platform's AI algorithms can make autonomous decisions, directing dependent systems to investigate areas of interest or respond to threats without human intervention.

This capability becomes increasingly important as the volume and complexity of space traffic grows. Traditional approaches to space surveillance that rely primarily on human operators analyzing individual tracks cannot scale to meet the demands of an increasingly congested space environment.

Looking Forward

The September demonstration represents more than a technological achievement; it signals a fundamental shift in how critical national security capabilities are developed and deployed. The ability of three commercial companies to organize, execute, and prove a complex space domain awareness capability in under a week demonstrates the potential for commercial innovation to enhance national security.

"Regular, rigorous component and systems testing for defense modernization is incredibly important," said Varda CEO Will Bruey. "Varda is doing that today as the lowest-cost, highest-cadence platform to fly at speeds higher than Mach 25. This is a leapfrog capability that only America has."

As space becomes an increasingly contested domain and hypersonic weapons proliferate globally, the technologies demonstrated in this collaboration may prove crucial for maintaining strategic stability and protecting national interests. The success of this commercial partnership suggests that the future of space domain awareness will be built not just by traditional defense contractors, but by the innovative spirit and rapid iteration capabilities of the commercial space sector.

The implications extend beyond defense to scientific research, commercial space operations, and international cooperation in space. As Varda aims to "make reentry as common as launch," the technologies proven in this demonstration could become the foundation for a new era of routine hypersonic flight and space commerce.

SIDEBAR: SBIRs

Specific SBIR Contract Details:

  1. LeoLabs AFWERX Contract: SBIR Phase II Contract $1.245M for S-band 2-D Direct Radiating Array (DRA)

  2. LeoLabs Arizona Radar: UHF Planar DRA radar partially funded by 2023 Direct to Phase II SBIR award from AFWERX

  3. MSBAI OrbitGuard Contract: Direct-to-Phase II SBIR contract $1.2M originated from Department of Defense Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO), selected by Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), executed by Air Force Digital Transformation Office (DTO)

  4. Surface Optics Contract: $1M SBIR Phase II contract from Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) for hypersonic missile detection

Specific SBIR Topic Numbers:

  • Space Force Open Topic: SBIR Topic #12161 including Critical Technology Areas of Space Domain Awareness (SDA) and Hypersonics

  • Navy Hypersonic Cruise Missile Defense: SBIR Topic N212-112 (2021.2 BAA), RT&L Focus Area: Hypersonics

  • Navy Hypersonic Detection: Navy SBIR Topic N231-020 (23.1 BAA) for EO/IR sensors

  • Navy Radar Seeker: Navy SBIR Topic N211-097 (21.1 BAA), RT&L Focus Area: Hypersonics

 


Sources

  1. Varda Space Industries, LeoLabs, and Anduril Industries. (2025, September 8). "Varda, LeoLabs, and Anduril demonstrate on-orbit maneuver tracking and AI-enabled software integration in advance of a hypersonic reentry." PR Newswire. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/varda-leolabs-and-anduril-demonstrate-on-orbit-maneuver-tracking-and-ai-enabled-software-integration-in-advance-of-a-hypersonic-reentry-302549490.html
  2. Via Satellite. (2025, May 14). "Varda Space Capsule Successfully Returns to Earth After Hypersonic Reentry Test." https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2025/05/14/varda-space-capsule-successfully-returns-to-earth-after-hypersonic-reentry-test/
  3. Erwin, S. (2025, May 14). "Varda Space reentry capsule lands in Australia, completes hypersonic research mission." SpaceNews. https://spacenews.com/varda-space-reentry-capsule-lands-in-australia-completes-hypersonic-research-mission/
  4. Defense News. (2025, May 14). "Varda lands third space capsule, carrying key hypersonic flight data." https://www.defensenews.com/space/2025/05/14/varda-lands-third-space-capsule-carrying-key-hypersonic-flight-data/
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  16. Varda, LeoLabs, and Anduril demonstrate on-orbit maneuver tracking and AI-enabled software integration in advance of a hypersonic reentry

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