Alliance Commander Expresses Urgency as Forces Test Drones, Robots in Portuguese Waters While China and Russia Accelerate Their Own Development
NATO is accelerating efforts to integrate cutting-edge military technologies into its naval operations, but alliance leadership warns that the pace of innovation may not be fast enough to maintain a decisive advantage over adversaries like Russia and China, both of whom are rapidly advancing their own military artificial intelligence and autonomous systems programs.
Commodore Arjen Warnaar, the Dutch commander of Standing NATO Maritime Group 1, expressed concern about the speed of technological advancement, stating that NATO is not developing fast enough and emphasizing the need to maintain the largest possible technological edge over adversaries.
Testing Ground for Innovation
Earlier this month, NATO forces conducted exercises off the coast of Portugal—REPMUS (Robotic Experimentation and Prototyping with Maritime Unmanned Systems) and Dynamic Messenger 2025—designed to provide allies with opportunities to test drones, robots, and other emerging technologies. The exercises focused on multiple operational areas, including protection of critical undersea infrastructure, naval mine warfare, intelligence and surveillance operations, integrated command and control, and defense against air and sea drones.
For three weeks, navies from 24 countries, including Ukraine, participated in what has been described as the largest unmanned maritime system exercise, with allies split into red and blue teams to carry out missions against each other. How NATO and allies seek to train defence tech companies on the battlefield | Euronews
Broader NATO Innovation Architecture
The Portuguese exercises represent just one component of a comprehensive NATO strategy to maintain technological superiority. In June 2025, NATO Defence Ministers endorsed a new Science and Technology Strategy that positions science and technology as a central pillar for preserving NATO's military and technological edge, stressing the importance of enabling the Alliance to outperform strategic competitors in adopting emerging technologies. NATO - News: NATO releases new Science & Technology Strategy, 05-Jun.-2025
At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Allied Leaders endorsed NATO's Rapid Adoption Action Plan, which aims to significantly accelerate the pace at which the Alliance adopts new technological products and integrates them into Allied armed forces within a maximum of 24 months. NATO - Topic: Emerging and disruptive technologies
The Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), working with over 200 accelerator sites and test centers across the Alliance, announced in December 2024 that over 70 companies would join its 2025 accelerator program, each receiving €100,000 in funding to develop deep technology solutions for pressing security challenges. NATONATOThe Spiral Development Imperative
Warnaar emphasized the importance of "spiral development"—a continuous process of innovation and adaptation—describing it as fundamental to military technological progress and noting that any effective system will eventually be countered, making constant development essential.
The Ukraine conflict has provided a stark illustration of this dynamic. Ukraine developed naval drones to attack Russian warships in the Black Sea, prompting Moscow to deploy more patrol aircraft for aerial monitoring. Kyiv then adapted by equipping its naval drones with surface-to-air missiles, which have successfully engaged Russian aircraft.
Warnaar characterized Ukraine's spiral development process as "existentially important" and representing the difference between winning and losing, emphasizing that NATO must avoid finding itself in similar circumstances.
Ukrainian defense technology companies are focusing on domestic missile production, drone swarms, and AI technologies in 2025, with Ukraine planning to produce up to 5 million drones annually. The country has established itself as a global defense tech hub, with rapid battlefield testing driving innovation cycles from years to weeks. Atlantic Council
The Kyiv IndependentThe Question of "Fast Enough" and "Good Enough"
Warnaar's assessment raises a fundamental challenge in military technology development: defining what constitutes adequate speed and capability. His assertion that "it's never fast enough" reflects the paradoxical nature of military technological competition.
The commander's emphasis on making the technological edge "as big as possible" suggests that NATO operates without a defined threshold for sufficiency. This approach reflects the reality articulated in what Warnaar calls "the first law of military technological development"—that any effective system will be countered in due time.
This philosophy presents both strategic and practical dilemmas for NATO. Without clear benchmarks for "fast enough" or "good enough," alliance members face the challenge of allocating resources in an environment where technological superiority is measured not by absolute capabilities but by relative advantage over adversaries whose own development programs remain partially opaque.
The Ukraine experience demonstrates that "good enough" may be better defined by adaptability and innovation speed rather than initial capability levels. Ukrainian naval drones were not necessarily superior to Russian countermeasures in absolute terms, but Ukraine's ability to rapidly iterate and deploy counter-countermeasures proved decisive. This suggests that NATO's adequacy may depend less on achieving a specific technological milestone and more on institutionalizing rapid development and deployment cycles that can outpace adversary adaptation.
The absence of a defined "fast enough" standard also reflects the competitive nature of the challenge. Since Russia and China are simultaneously developing their own capabilities, NATO's required speed is inherently relative and continuously recalibrating.
The Adversary Threat: China and Russia Accelerating
Warnaar acknowledged that Russians and Chinese forces are pursuing their own technological development programs, stressing the imperative that NATO's development must proceed faster than its competitors'.
China's Military AI Ambitions
China has set a goal to "accelerate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization" by 2027, aiming to integrate artificial intelligence, quantum computing, big data, and other emerging technologies into its joint force. In his 2022 speech to the CCP's 20th National Congress, President Xi Jinping called on China to "speed up the development of unmanned, intelligent combat capabilities." Military Artificial Intelligence, the People’s Liberation Army, and U.S.-China Strategic Competition | CNAS
China's New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan lays out a comprehensive blueprint for AI development in both private and public sectors, with the Chinese leadership intending to take advantage of AI to enhance economic competitiveness and military capabilities. China’s Military Employment of Artificial Intelligence and Its Security Implications — THE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS REVIEW
China has a national strategy to develop military AI capabilities, with "intelligent warfare" as a core component of the People's Liberation Army's modernization efforts. Researchers have identified key areas where the PLA is making AI investments, including intelligent and autonomous vehicles, intelligence and surveillance, predictive maintenance, information and electronic warfare, simulation and training, command and control, and automated target recognition. China will continue to advance its military AI | Oxford Analytica
Russia-China AI Cooperation
In early 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered state-owned Sberbank to work with China in researching and developing AI technology. The president of the Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Research Institute announced plans to sign an agreement with Russia's Sberbank to promote bilateral cooperation. Voice of America
Council on Foreign RelationsRussian and Chinese officials met in Beijing to discuss military application of AI, especially in developing autonomous weapons. In December 2024, Ukraine reported Russia began using AI-powered strike drones with improved capabilities that can evade air defenses, identify key targets, and operate offline. Russia turns to China to step up AI race against US
In a May 2025 joint statement by China and Russia on Global Strategic Stability, the two sides noted the need for further cooperation on the issues of military application of artificial intelligence technologies both in bilateral format and at specialized multilateral venues. JOINT STATEMENT by the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Global Strategic Stability_Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China
Russia's Constrained but Determined Effort
Despite obstacles to its AI development, the Kremlin will seek to offset challenges through import substitution programs, investment funds for domestic AI companies, and workforce development across its national academic establishment. Russia also will rely on China for AI-related technological and policy developments. The Role of AI in Russia’s Confrontation with the West | CNAS
Russia's defense ministry approved plans for delivery of advanced electronic warfare systems to military units by 2025, with experts citing potential efficiency increases of 40-50 percent. Integration of AI into electronic warfare systems could enhance Russia's notable capabilities in this area. Advanced military technology in Russia | 06 Military applications of artificial intelligence: the Russian approach
NATO's Strategic Response and Fiscal Reality
At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Allies made a commitment to investing 5% of Gross Domestic Product annually on core defense requirements and defense- and security-related spending by 2035, with at least 3.5% of GDP allocated based on the agreed definition of NATO defense expenditure to meet capability targets. NATO
NATOWorld military expenditure reached $2,718 billion in 2024, an increase of 9.4 percent in real terms from 2023 and the steepest year-on-year rise since at least the end of the cold war. European NATO members spent $454 billion in total, representing 30 percent of alliance spending. Unprecedented rise in global military expenditure as European and Middle East spending surges | SIPRI
US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker called upon allies to demonstrate real year-over-year growth in defense spending, warning that some allies are "dragging their feet" and need to pick up the pace on meeting their commitments. US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker’s message to allies ‘dragging their feet’ on defense spending - Atlantic Council
However, analysts warn that the 5% target has significant fiscal and operational implications. Debt levels among many NATO member states are relatively high, and there are questions about whether NATO's national defense sectors can absorb a doubling or tripling of military budgets responsibly. Past rapid increases in military expenditure have been associated with procurement inefficiencies, overpricing, and misuse. NATO’s new spending target: challenges and risks associated with a political signal | SIPRI
Advanced Systems and Future Warfare
Among the hundreds of technological systems tested were an underwater drone capable of naval mine countermeasures, seabed surveys, and reconnaissance, as well as a robot designed to identify threats and relay sonar data to command centers ashore.
NATO's Science & Technology Organization released its Science & Technology Macro Trends Report 2025–2045, identifying six key trends: evolving competition areas; the race for AI and quantum superiority; biotechnology revolution; resource divide; fragmenting public trust; and technology integration and dependencies. NATO - News: NATO Science and Technology report identifies trends shaping the future of science, defence and security for the next 20 years, 09-Apr.-2025
Allied Command Transformation identified nine critical emerging and disruptive technologies that will shape future warfare, ranging from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to biotechnology and autonomous systems, and is implementing NATO's "Foster and Protect" strategy to leverage these technologies. Allied Command Transformation and Innovation: Advancing NATO’s Strategic Edge - NATO's ACT
Competitive Pressure and Future Outlook
Despite the concerns, there are signs of progress. Warnaar noted that while NATO is not moving as quickly as desired, various exciting developments are underway and the pace of advancement is increasing.
James Appathurai, interim managing director at NATO's Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), emphasized the need to embrace risk and test technologies hard, stating "Like Elon Musk [needs] exploding rockets, we need to embrace risk, we need to test and plan for 20 years in the future." How NATO and allies seek to train defence tech companies on the battlefield | Euronews
The exercises and broader NATO innovation initiatives underscore the alliance's recognition that future warfare will likely feature increased autonomous systems and that maintaining technological superiority requires sustained investment and rapid innovation cycles. However, the commander's frank admission that NATO feels "a certain sense of urgency" suggests that alliance leadership remains acutely aware of the gap between current capabilities and the undefined but critical threshold of adequacy in an era of great power competition.
The fundamental challenge remains: in a competition without a finish line, where adversaries are simultaneously accelerating their own programs, NATO must not only innovate but must do so faster than competitors who are themselves racing ahead. The question is not whether NATO's technological edge is "good enough" in absolute terms, but whether the alliance can maintain a relative advantage that continuously outpaces adversary adaptation—a moving target that, as Warnaar suggests, may never truly be "fast enough."
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